新农保政策对农户消费结构升级的影响——基于预防性储蓄视角
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贵州大学经济学院

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国家自然科学基金项目(72163003);贵州省研究生科研基金项目(YJSKYJJ(2021)032);贵州大学经济学院研究生创新基金项目(CJ2022027)


The impact of the New Rural Social Pension Program on the upgrading of rural households’ consumption structure: From the perspective of precautionary savings
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School of Economics, Guizhou University

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National Natural Science Foundation of China (72163003); Foundation of Postgraduate of Guizhou Province (YJSKYJJ(2021)032); Graduate Innovation Fund of the School of Economics of Guizhou University (CJ2022027).

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    摘要:

    农村社会保障制度被认为是促进农户消费结构升级的有效路径。本文基于预防性储蓄理论,利用CFPS 2012年和2018年微观调研数据,运用PSM-DID模型,分析新农保政策对农户消费结构升级的影响,并运用中介效应模型,探讨新农保政策对农户消费结构升级的作用机制。结果表明,2012年至2018年参保农户的恩格尔系数下降0.097个单位,未参保农户的恩格尔系数下降0.018个单位,差距显著小于参保农户,新农保政策的实施能够显著促进农户消费结构升级。预防性储蓄作为新农保政策影响农户消费结构升级的重要渠道,中介效应占比为15.3%。另外,相较于老年农户群体,新农保对于青壮年农户的消费结构升级效应更加显著,同时在地区差异上,新农保更有利于促进西部地区的农户消费结构升级。因此,建议持续推动农村新农保政策的覆盖广度和深度,科学合理提高农村社会保障水平,因地制宜实施新农保政策,继续探索城乡基本养老保险并轨,最终促进农户消费结构升级推动农村地区经济发展。

    Abstract:

    The rural social security system is considered as an effective way to promote the upgrading of rural households’ consumption structure. Based on a micro survey data of the CFPS in 2012 and 2018 and applying the Precautionary Savings Theory, this paper analyzed the impact of the New Rural Social Pension Program (NRSPP) on the upgrading of the rural households’ consumption structure by the PSM-DID model and explored the mechanism of the NRSPP on the upgrading of the rural households’ consumption structure by the Mediating Effect Model. Results show that from 2012 to 2018, the Engel coefficient of insured farmers decreased by 0.097 units, and that of uninsured farmers decreased by 0.018 units. The gap is significantly smaller than that of insured farmers. The implementation of the NRSPP can significantly promote the upgrading of rural households’ consumption structure. As an important channel for the NRSPP to affect the upgrading of rural households’ consumption structure, the mediating effect accounts for 15.3%. In addition, compared with elderly farmers, the NRSPP has a more significant effect on the upgrading of the consumption structure of young and middle-aged farmers. At the same time, in terms of regional differences, the NRSPP is more conducive to promoting the upgrading of rural households’ consumption structure in western region. Therefore, to promote the economic development of rural areas, this paper suggests: to continue to promote the coverage and the depth of the NRSPP, to scientifically and rationally improve the level of rural social security, to implement the NRSPP according to local conditions, to continue to explore the integration of urban and rural basic endowment insurance, and to ultimately promote the upgrading of the rural households’ consumption structure.

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王极,洪名勇,田梦婕. 新农保政策对农户消费结构升级的影响——基于预防性储蓄视角[J]. 农业现代化研究, 2023, 44(1): 119-129
WANG Ji, HONG Ming-yong, TIAN Meng-jie. The impact of the New Rural Social Pension Program on the upgrading of rural households’ consumption structure: From the perspective of precautionary savings[J]. Research of Agricultural Modernization, 2023, 44(1): 119-129

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  • 收稿日期:2022-09-17
  • 最后修改日期:2022-12-16
  • 录用日期:2022-12-16
  • 在线发布日期: 2023-03-03
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