Under the background of rapid increase in agricultural production cost and sharp increase in rice imports, it is of great significance to analyze and predict the future trends of domestic rice supply and demand. According to the national data from 1978 to 2015, this paper examined the factors affecting the supply and demand of China’s rice based on the partial equilibrium theory and the generalized matrix estimation method after analyzing the history of rice supply and demand. Furthermore, this paper forecasted the trends of supply and demand of rice from 2016 to 2030 with base line scenario, economic growth scenario and cost scenario. Results show that: 1) previous year harvest area and farm gate price increase will significantly increase rice harvest area, while production cost will significantly reduce it. In addition, dietary preference keeps rice on the top of the grain consumption list; 2) the international market price only significantly affect rice exports and has little influence on rice imports; and 3) in the content of changing rice import and export patterns, domestic consumption of rice will fall down, while China’s rice supplement and rice self-sufficiently rates keep declining year by year. Reducing rice production cost can effectively stimulate farmers’ enthusiasm and raise rice self-sufficiency rate. In the future, this paper suggests to reduce production costs, to ensure production capacity, to optimize production structure, and continuously to improve the competitiveness of rice industry in China.