“三变”改革对农户增收的影响及机制 ——基于地级市面板数据的分析
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作者单位:

1.首都经济贸易大学经济学院;2.浙江大学中国农村发展研究院;3.中国人民大学农业与农村发展学院

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基金项目:

国家社会科学基金重大项目(21ZDA059, 21ZDA055)


The impact and mechanism of the “three changes” reform on farmers’ income increase: an analysis based on prefecture-level panel data in China
Author:
Affiliation:

1.School of Economics, Capital University of Economics and Business;2.China Academy for Rural Development, Zhejiang University;3.School of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, Renmin University of China

Fund Project:

National Social Science Foundation of China

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    摘要:

    农村集体产权制度改革及其深化在促进农户增收和实现共同富裕目标中发挥着重要作用。本文构建了“‘三变’改革-要素配置-农户收入”的理论分析框架,基于2005—2021年中国220个地级市面板数据,采用合成控制法(SCM)量化评估“三变”改革对农户增收的影响与效应,并利用倾向得分匹配双重差分(PSM-DID)模型和中介效应模型验证结果的稳健性,进一步分析其影响机制。研究发现:1)农村“三变”改革显著提升了农村居民人均可支配收入;2)“三变”改革通过优化农户土地要素在区域特色优势产业与传统产业之间的配置,并通过优化不同农业经营主体的资金要素配置,进而提高农户收入;3)“三变”改革通过影响农户家庭劳动力要素的配置,促进农户工资性收入的增加。基于此,未来应进一步规范改革实践过程,细化关键节点的考核,完善效果评估机制,确保“三变”改革政策的有效落实。同时,积极推进土地、资金、劳动力服务平台建设,并持续优化改革的宏观环境,创建有利于“三变”改革落地实施的保障机制。

    Abstract:

    The reform and deepening of the rural collective property rights system play a crucial role in promoting rural household income growth and advancing the goal of common prosperity. This paper constructs a theoretical framework of “three changes” reform-factor allocation-rural household income. Using panel data from 220 prefecture-level cities in China from 2005 to 2021, the Synthetic Control Method (SCM) is employed to quantitatively assess the impact and effects of the “three changes” reform on rural household income. The Propensity Score Matching Difference-in-Differences (PSM-DID) model and the mediating effect model are applied to test the robustness of the results and analyze the underlying mechanisms. The key findings are as follows: 1) The “three changes” reform has significantly increased the per capita disposable income of rural residents; 2) It enhances rural household income by optimizing the allocation of land resources between regional characteristic industries and traditional industries, as well as by improving the allocation of capital factors among different agricultural business entities; 3) The reform promotes income growth by influencing rural labor allocation and increasing wage-based earnings. Based on these findings, future efforts should focus on standardizing reform practices, refining the assessment of key implementation stages, and improving the evaluation of reform outcomes to ensure policy effectiveness. Additionally, advancing the establishment of service platforms for land, capital, and labor, optimizing the macro-level reform environment, and developing supporting mechanisms are essential to the successful implementation of the “three changes” reform.

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杨慧莲,桂浩,郑淋议,郑风田. “三变”改革对农户增收的影响及机制 ——基于地级市面板数据的分析[J]. 农业现代化研究, 2025, 46(3): 506-518
YANG Huilian, GUI Hao, ZHENG Lingyi, ZHENG Fengtian. The impact and mechanism of the “three changes” reform on farmers’ income increase: an analysis based on prefecture-level panel data in China[J]. Research of Agricultural Modernization, 2025, 46(3): 506-518

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  • 收稿日期:2024-11-29
  • 最后修改日期:2025-03-08
  • 录用日期:2025-03-10
  • 在线发布日期: 2025-06-18
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