Abstract:Enhancing the resilience of grain production is a critical pathway for effective response of the grain production system to uncertain factors and unknown risks, as well as an inherent requirement for high-quality development of the entire grain industry. Based on a panel data from 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government in China from 2008 to 2022 (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan), this study measured the level of grain production resilience by the entropy weighting method and explored the impacts of rural labor aging on grain production resilience and its mechanisms by the uses the bidirectional fixed effect, mediating effect, and threshold effect models. Results show that: 1) Rural labor aging has a positive impact on grain production resilience. 2) The effects of grain production resilience in grain-producing areas and grain-producing and market balancing areas are more significant, and the geographical location presents a differentiated feature of “high in the north and low in the south”. 3) Rural labor aging catalyzes scale effects, mechanical effects, and service effects through the incentive mechanism, thereby improving grain production resilience. And 4) further exploration reveals that as the quality level of the labor force improves, the impacts of rural labor aging on grain production resilience shows a nonlinear increasing trend, and the growth rate gradually increases. Therefore, to improve grain production resilience, this paper suggests: encouraging farmers to transfer land moderately, promoting grain production on a large scale, improving the penetration rate of agricultural machinery, accelerating the agricultural mechanization process, improving the agricultural socialized service system and grain production efficiency, increasing investment in rural education, and expanding the group of professional farmers.