农村劳动力老龄化对粮食生产韧性的影响——基于倒逼视角的中介效应
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1.东北农业大学松花江流域生态环境保护研究中心;2.东北农业大学经济管理学院

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基金项目:

国家社会科学基金项目(23BJY188);黑龙江省社会科学基金项目(24JYH007)


The impacts of rural labor aging on the resilience of food production: mediating effects from the inversion perspective
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Affiliation:

1.Northeast Agricultural University Songhua River Basin Ecological Environment Protection Research Center;2.Northeast Agricultural University,College of Economics and Management

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Supported by National Social Science Foundation of China (23BJY188); Heilongjiang Provincial Social Science Foundation Project (24JYH007).

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    摘要:

    提升粮食生产韧性是粮食生产系统有效应对不确定性因素与未知风险的关键路径,也是实现粮食全产业高质量发展的内在要求。本研究基于2008—2022年中国31个省(区、市)(不包含港澳台地区)的面板数据,运用熵权法测度粮食生产韧性水平,并利用双向固定效应、中介效应与门槛效应模型探究农村劳动力老龄化对粮食生产韧性的影响及作用机理。结果表明:1)农村劳动力老龄化对粮食生产韧性具有正向影响。2)粮食主产区和粮食产销平衡区对粮食生产韧性的作用效果更为显著,且在地理区位上呈现“北高南低”的差异化特征。3)农村劳动力老龄化通过倒逼机制,催生规模效应、机械效应与服务效应,从而提升粮食生产韧性。4)进一步探究发现,随着劳动力素质水平的提升,农村劳动力老龄化的影响效果呈现非线性递增趋势,且增长幅度逐渐加大。因此,应鼓励农民适度流转土地,推动粮食生产规模化经营,提高农业机械普及率,加速农业机械化进程,完善农业社会化服务体系,提升粮食生产效率,加强农村素质教育投入,扩大职业农民群体,进而提升粮食生产韧性。

    Abstract:

    Enhancing the resilience of grain production is a critical pathway for effective response of the grain production system to uncertain factors and unknown risks, as well as an inherent requirement for high-quality development of the entire grain industry. Based on a panel data from 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government in China from 2008 to 2022 (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan), this study measured the level of grain production resilience by the entropy weighting method and explored the impacts of rural labor aging on grain production resilience and its mechanisms by the uses the bidirectional fixed effect, mediating effect, and threshold effect models. Results show that: 1) Rural labor aging has a positive impact on grain production resilience. 2) The effects of grain production resilience in grain-producing areas and grain-producing and market balancing areas are more significant, and the geographical location presents a differentiated feature of “high in the north and low in the south”. 3) Rural labor aging catalyzes scale effects, mechanical effects, and service effects through the incentive mechanism, thereby improving grain production resilience. And 4) further exploration reveals that as the quality level of the labor force improves, the impacts of rural labor aging on grain production resilience shows a nonlinear increasing trend, and the growth rate gradually increases. Therefore, to improve grain production resilience, this paper suggests: encouraging farmers to transfer land moderately, promoting grain production on a large scale, improving the penetration rate of agricultural machinery, accelerating the agricultural mechanization process, improving the agricultural socialized service system and grain production efficiency, increasing investment in rural education, and expanding the group of professional farmers.

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引用本文

崔宁波,王斯曼,董晋. 农村劳动力老龄化对粮食生产韧性的影响——基于倒逼视角的中介效应[J]. 农业现代化研究, 2025, 46(2): 237-247
CUI Ning-bo, WANG Si-man, DONG Jin. The impacts of rural labor aging on the resilience of food production: mediating effects from the inversion perspective[J]. Research of Agricultural Modernization, 2025, 46(2): 237-247

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  • 收稿日期:2024-11-12
  • 最后修改日期:2025-02-16
  • 录用日期:2025-02-17
  • 在线发布日期: 2025-04-18
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