过渡期结束背景下西北地区巩固脱贫攻坚成果时空演化及驱动机制研究
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1.北方民族大学管理学院;2.北方民族大学经济学院

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基金项目:

国家社会科学基金项目(23XMZ001);宁夏自治区高等学校科研项目(NYG2024097);北方民族大学研究生创新项目(YCX24168)


The spatiotemporal evolution and the driving mechanism of poverty alleviation achievement consolidation in northwest China under the post-transition period
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Affiliation:

1.School of Management, North Minzu University;2.School of Economics, North Minzu University

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Supported by The National Social Science Foundation of China (23XMZ001); Research Projects of Universities in Ningxia Autonomous Region (NYG2024097); Graduate Innovation Project of North Minzu University (YCX24168).

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    摘要:

    基于西北地区2012—2023年统计数据,采用量化方法,对当前巩固脱贫攻坚成果(固贫)的时空演化特征和驱动机制进行了系统评估,探讨了巩固脱贫攻坚期后西北地区帮扶政策如何优化调整。结果表明:1)2012—2023年间西北地区产业与生态固贫效果得分均呈现出先降后升的“U”形演化态势,文化固贫和生活富裕固贫效果得分呈现出先上升后平稳的态势,基层治理固贫效果得分呈现波动上升态势,且生态固贫、文化固贫、生活富裕固贫效果得分较高。2)2012—2023年间西北地区巩固脱贫攻坚成果总系统效果得分呈现波动上升的态势。空间差异明显,呈现出“东西高,中间低”的“哑铃状”分布格局,但空间分布趋向分析结果显示,西北地区正逐渐打破这一分布格局转而朝向均衡状态发展。3)西北地区巩固脱贫攻坚成果总系统效果时空演化主要受五大子系统的协同驱动影响,其中农业种植结构优化、生活条件改善对总系统的驱动力较差。基于此,研究认为应充分协同强化巩固脱贫攻坚成果薄弱驱动力,动态调整西北地区帮扶资源配置,优化区域均衡布局。

    Abstract:

    Based on a data of northwest China from 2012 to 2023, this study employs quantitative methods to conduct a systematic assessment of the temporal and spatial evolution characteristics and the driving mechanism underlying the consolidation of poverty alleviation achievements. Furthermore, it explores strategic approaches for optimizing assistance policies in northwest China after the period of consolidating poverty alleviation. Results show: 1) From 2012 to 2023, the effectiveness scores of consolidating industrial poverty and ecological poverty alleviation in northwest China initially declined and then rose, showing a U-shaped evolution trend. The scores for consolidating cultural poverty alleviation first increased and then stabilized, while the scores for consolidating grassroots governance and prosperous living standards exhibited a fluctuating upward trend. Moreover, the scores for consolidating ecological poverty alleviation, cultural poverty alleviation and prosperous living standards were relatively high. 2) From 2012 to 2023, the overall effectiveness scores of the achievements of consolidating poverty alleviation in northwest China showed a fluctuating upward trend. There was a significant spatial disparity, presenting a “dumbbell-shaped” distribution pattern with higher scores in the east and west and lower scores in the central area. However, spatial distribution trend analysis indicates that the northwest China is gradually breaking this distribution pattern and developing towards a balanced state. And 3) the temporal and spatial evolution of the overall effectiveness of consolidating poverty alleviation achievements in northwest China is mainly driven by the synergistic effects of the five subsystems, among which the optimization of agricultural planting structures and the improvement in living conditions have relatively weaker driving forces on the overall system. Based on these findings, the study concludes that enhancing coordinated efforts to reinforce the unsubstantial drivers in consolidating poverty alleviation achievements, dynamically optimizing resource allocation for assistance programs in northwest China, and advancing equitable regional development should be prioritized as key policy measures.

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刘七军,杨玉坤,李昭楠. 过渡期结束背景下西北地区巩固脱贫攻坚成果时空演化及驱动机制研究[J]. 农业现代化研究, 2025, 46(2): 339-350
LIU Qi-jun, YANG Yu-kun, LI Zhao-nan. The spatiotemporal evolution and the driving mechanism of poverty alleviation achievement consolidation in northwest China under the post-transition period[J]. Research of Agricultural Modernization, 2025, 46(2): 339-350

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  • 收稿日期:2024-10-25
  • 最后修改日期:2025-03-03
  • 录用日期:2025-03-04
  • 在线发布日期: 2025-04-18
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