新农保的预期养老保障功能能否促进土地转出? ——来自代际支持的证据
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浙江农林大学

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基金项目:

国家自然科学青年基金项目(72003177,72203207);教育部人文社科青年项目(21YJC790173)。


Can the expected old-age security function of the New Rural Insurance promote land transfer? Based on the perspective of intergenerational support
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Affiliation:

Zhejiang Agriculture & Forestry University

Fund Project:

National Natural Science Foundation for Young Scientists of China (72003177, 72203207); The Ministry of education of Humanities and Social Science project (21YJC790173).

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    摘要:

    农村长期制度性养老保障的不足一直是制约土地流转市场发展的关键因素。本研究通过对中国健康与养老追踪调查2011—2018年4期面板数据的实证分析,系统研究了新型农村社会养老保险(简称“新农保”)对60岁以下农户家庭土地转出决策的影响,并考察了在不同代际支持条件下的差异。研究结果表明,新农保提供的预期养老保障功能能够替代土地养老保障,降低农户对未来土地经营产出的期望,从而减少了农业劳动供给,推动了土地的流转。尤其值得注意的是,这种影响在子代提供经济支持的情况下更为显著。此外,当子代未提供经济支持时,新农保鼓励农户将农业劳动力转移到边际收益更高的非农劳动领域,也有助于土地的流转。进一步分析还揭示了新农保在不同地区存在的差异性影响,即参与新农保会促使东部和中部地区的农户更多地从事非农劳动,而会降低西部地区农户的劳动供给。因此,本研究建议改进新农保的衔接和转化机制,特别要关注子代经济支持不足以及欠发达地区的弱势群体,采取差异化政策支持,以提高养老保障水平。

    Abstract:

    The lack of long-term institutional pension security in rural areas has been a key constraint on the development of the land transfer market. This paper systematically analyzes the impact of the New Rural Insurance (NRI) on the land transfer decision of farm households under the age of 60 and its differences under different intergenerational support conditions through empirical analyses of four-period panel data, which are collected from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) from 2011 to 2018. It finds that the expected old-age security function provided by the NRI can substitute for the old-age security function of the land and lower farmers’ expectations of future land operation output, thus reducing the supply of farm labor, and promoting land transfer. Particularly noteworthy is that this effect is particularly significant in cases where the offspring provide economic support. In addition, when the offspring do not provide economic support, participation in the NRI can encourage farmers to transfer farm labor to non-farm labor with a high marginal income, which also promotes land transfer. Further analysis also reveals the differential impacts of the NRI in different regions. Participation in the NRI can induce farm households in the eastern and central regions to engage more in non-farm labor, while it can induce farm households in the western region to reduce their labor supply. Therefore, this paper suggests improving the articulation and transformation mechanism of NRI, paying special attention to the disadvantaged groups with insufficient economic support from their offspring and those in less developed regions, and adopting differentiated policy support to improve the level of old-age security.

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宁可,曹琳琳,朱哲毅. 新农保的预期养老保障功能能否促进土地转出? ——来自代际支持的证据[J]. 农业现代化研究, 2024, 45(1): 61-70
NING Ke, CAO Lin-lin, ZHU Zhe-yi. Can the expected old-age security function of the New Rural Insurance promote land transfer? Based on the perspective of intergenerational support[J]. Research of Agricultural Modernization, 2024, 45(1): 61-70

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  • 收稿日期:2023-10-06
  • 最后修改日期:2024-01-23
  • 录用日期:2024-01-29
  • 在线发布日期: 2024-03-05
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