农村人口老龄化对农业高质量发展的影响及作用路径
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作者单位:

1.江西财经大学统计与数据科学学院;2.江西财经大学

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基金项目:

国家自然科学基金地区项目(72063009);江西省博士后科研择优资助项目(2021KY11)。


The impact and action path of rural population aging on high-quality agricultural development
Author:
Affiliation:

1.School of Statistics and Data Science,Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics;2.Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics

Fund Project:

Regional Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (72063009); Jiangxi Province Postdoctoral Research Excellence Funding Project (2021KY11).

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    摘要:

    在农村人口老龄化和空心化日益加剧的背景下,深入研究农村人口老龄化对农业高质量发展的影响具有重要意义。本文基于2009—2020年我国省级层面的面板数据,使用熵权法测算了农业高质量发展水平,通过构建以农地流转和农业科技创新为中介变量和调节变量的调节中介效应模型,深入分析了农村人口老龄化对农业高质量发展的影响和作用路径。结果表明:1)2009—2020年我国农业高质量发展水平总体呈小幅递增趋势,且东部地区远高于其他地区;2)农村人口老龄化对农业高质量发展具有显著的正向影响,其影响程度依次为西部>东北>中部>东部,其中农地流转起到了重要的中介作用;3)农业科技创新能显著促进农地流转和农业高质量发展,其在农村人口老龄化影响农业高质量发展和农地流转的过程中起负向调节作用,而在农地流转推动农业高质量发展的过程中则起正向调节作用。因此,应立足中国国情,积极引导老龄农户退出和流转土地,加大农业科学技术研发投入以及因地制宜制定农业发展规划。

    Abstract:

    In the context of the increasing aging and hollowing-out of the rural population, it is of great significance to study the impact of rural population aging on the high-quality development of agriculture. Based on the panel data of China’s provincial level from 2009 to 2020, this paper uses the entropy weight method to measure the level of high-quality agricultural development, by constructing a moderating mediating effect model with agricultural land transfer and agricultural technological innovation as mediating variables and moderating variables, the impact and pathway of rural population aging on high-quality agricultural development were analyzed in depth. The results show that: 1) The overall level of high-quality agricultural development showed a slight upward trend from 2009 to 2020, with the eastern region far higher than other regions; 2) Rural population aging has a significant positive impact on high-quality agricultural development, with the degree of the impact is in the order of west>northeast>central>east, and the farmland circulation plays an essential mediating role; 3) Agricultural technological innovation can significantly promote farmland circulation and high-quality agricultural development, it plays a negative moderating role in the process of rural population aging promoting high-quality agricultural development and farmland circulation, while playing a positive moderating role in the process of farmland circulation promoting high-quality agricultural development. Therefore, it should be based on China’s national conditions, it is necessary to actively guide elderly farmers to withdraw and transfer land, increase investment in agricultural science and technology research and development, and formulate agricultural development plans according to local conditions.

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引用本文

刘成坤,陈晗,张茗泓. 农村人口老龄化对农业高质量发展的影响及作用路径[J]. 农业现代化研究, 2023, 44(6): 955-966
LIU Cheng-kun, CHEN Han, ZHANG Ming-hong. The impact and action path of rural population aging on high-quality agricultural development[J]. Research of Agricultural Modernization, 2023, 44(6): 955-966

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  • 收稿日期:2023-06-05
  • 最后修改日期:2023-11-30
  • 录用日期:2023-12-07
  • 在线发布日期: 2024-02-05
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