In the context of the increasing aging and hollowing-out of the rural population, it is of great significance to study the impact of rural population aging on the high-quality development of agriculture. Based on the panel data of China’s provincial level from 2009 to 2020, this paper uses the entropy weight method to measure the level of high-quality agricultural development, by constructing a moderating mediating effect model with agricultural land transfer and agricultural technological innovation as mediating variables and moderating variables, the impact and pathway of rural population aging on high-quality agricultural development were analyzed in depth. The results show that: 1) The overall level of high-quality agricultural development showed a slight upward trend from 2009 to 2020, with the eastern region far higher than other regions; 2) Rural population aging has a significant positive impact on high-quality agricultural development, with the degree of the impact is in the order of west>northeast>central>east, and the farmland circulation plays an essential mediating role; 3) Agricultural technological innovation can significantly promote farmland circulation and high-quality agricultural development, it plays a negative moderating role in the process of rural population aging promoting high-quality agricultural development and farmland circulation, while playing a positive moderating role in the process of farmland circulation promoting high-quality agricultural development. Therefore, it should be based on China’s national conditions, it is necessary to actively guide elderly farmers to withdraw and transfer land, increase investment in agricultural science and technology research and development, and formulate agricultural development plans according to local conditions.