Abstract:In suburban areas, the expectation of land expropriation among farmers is a notable social phenomenon. Examining the factors that influence the expectation from a farmers’ livelihood perspective can provide a reference for improving the existing land expropriation system. Based on a survey data of 562 farmers in Caidian District, Wuhan City, this paper employs the sustainable livelihood framework to analyze suburban farmers’ livelihood patterns and land expropriation expectations during urbanization. In addition, this paper also adopts the ordered probit model to examine the influencing factors of farmers’ land expropriation expectations under different livelihood patterns. Results show that livelihood patterns of suburban farmers are predominantly agro-industrial and non-agricultural, accounting for 55.2% and 36.5%, respectively; 60.7% of the farmers interviewed expect their land to be expropriated and peri-urban farmers’ expectations of land expropriation are significantly higher than those of distant farmers; agro-industrial and non-agricultural households with less dependence on agricultural land for living have a stronger desire for land expropriation. The land expropriation expectations of farmers in suburban areas are primarily influenced by two factors: the proportion of the non-farm labor force and the amount of contracted land. The ratio of the non-farm labor force has a positive impact on the land expropriation expectation of both farm-workers and non-farm type farmers. Conversely, the area of contracted land has a negative impact on the land expropriation expectation of non-farm type farmers. Therefore, the government should fully consider the land expropriation expectations of suburban farmers and meet their demand for non-farm employment and compensation for the withdrawal of contracted land. This paper suggests strengthening support for the non-agricultural job of farmers and accelerating the improvement of the compensation mechanism for land expropriation.