Institute of Agricultural Economics and Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences
The National Social Science Fund of China(22CGL025); National Natural Science Foundation of China(72033009); Central Public-interest Scientific Institution Basal Research Funds(1610052022028); The Agricultural Science and Technology Innovation Program(10-IAED-01-2023)
The current round of major animal epidemics had led to dramatic volatility in the hog market and caused large economic and social impacts, and there would be risks of deepening market volatility and compressing the hog cycle due to the intensive series of regulatory policies introduced by the state. Based on China’s hog market prices, hog epidemic and policy indices from the 1st quarter of 2005 to the 3rd quarter of 2021, this study conducted an empirical analysis to investigate the epidemic shock mechanism and policy regulation effect of hog market price volatility by the TVP-VAR-SV model. Results show that the impacts of epidemic shock and policy regulation on hog market prices had obvious time-varying and cyclical characteristics, and the epidemic shock was more manifested as the cyclical driving effect of price increase, which was an important driving factor of the cyclical volatility of hog market prices. Hog policies were often counter-cyclical regulation with a certain misallocation in the regulation policies, deepening the hog market volatility and compressing the original hog cycle. The epidemic shock had a greater impact on hog market prices than that of policy regulation, and the role of policy regulation was more obvious after the outbreak of African swine fever, which was more manifested in driving prices downward. The effect of policy regulation had a weak lag and persistence compared to that of the epidemic shock, indicating that policy implementation still needs to be vigorous in terms of continuity and stability. To further promote the stable and orderly development of the hog industry and market, this paper suggests strengthening the ability of the hog market to cope with uncertainties and optimizing the hog policy support system.
石自忠,胡向东. 疫情冲击、政策调控与中国生猪市场价格波动[J]. 农业现代化研究, 2023, 44(1): 130-141
SHI Zi-zhong, HU Xiang-dong. Epidemic shock, policy regulation, and China’s hog market price volatility[J]. Research of Agricultural Modernization, 2023, 44(1): 130-141