1.Institute of Agricultural Economy and Development, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences;2.College of Economics and Management, Northwest A & F University
National Natural Science Foundation of China (72033009); Science and Technology Innovation Project of Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (10-IAED-RC-06-2022)
To clarify the changing trend of meat consumption structure of domestic consumers after the outbreak of African swine fever to form a basis for the subsequent formulation and implementation of policies to stabilize the pig market, and to provide a reference for future research on the changes of meat consumption behaviors after the outbreak of other animal diseases. Based on a panel data of 31 provinces and cities in China from 2015 to 2020, this paper explored the impacts of African swine fever on the meat consumption structure from both theoretical and empirical aspects by the difference-in-differences method and verified its mechanism by the moderating effect model. Results show that: 1) African swine fever has led to a significant decline in the total per capita meat consumption in China, of which pork has the most significant downward trend, and poultry meat has increased significantly as a main substitute for pork; 2) there are obvious differences in the impacts of African swine fever on meat consumption between urban and rural consumers. The consumption changes of rural consumers and the overall consumers of the country are consistent, and rural consumers are more affected by African swine fever. For urban consumers, African swine fever will also reduce their total meat consumption and pork consumption, but not significantly. Unlike rural consumers, poultry and beef together become pork substitutes selected by urban consumers; and 3) consumer’s disposable income has a significant regulatory effect on the impacts of African swine fever on consumers’ total meat and pork consumption. The lower the disposable income becomes after the occurrence of African swine fever, the more the total meat and pork consumption declines.
郝旺,石自忠,杨健卿,胡向东. 非洲猪瘟疫情对中国居民肉类消费的影响[J]. 农业现代化研究, 2023, 44(1): 142-152
HAO Wang, SHI Zi-zhong, YANG Jian-qing, HU Xiang-dong. Impacts of African swine fever on meat consumption of Chinese consumers[J]. Research of Agricultural Modernization, 2023, 44(1): 142-152