农业劳动力转移与农业机械化对中国粮食生产的关联影响分析
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南昌大学经济管理学院

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基金项目:

国家自然科学基金项目(41761110);教育部人文社会科学规划基金项目(17YJA790084)。


The integrated impacts of rural labor transfer and agricultural mechanization on China’s grain production
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Affiliation:

School of Economics Management,Nanchang,330031 Jiangxi

Fund Project:

National Natural Science Foundation of China (41761110); Foundation of Humanities and Social Sciences, Ministry of Education of China (17YJA790084).

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    摘要:

    农业劳动力转移和农业机械化相互影响和关联,两者共同驱动着中国粮食生产变化。为更好地促进中国粮食生产,提升国家粮食安全保障能力,采用Kaya恒等式模型构建了农业劳动力转移和农业机械化联合影响下的粮食产量变化分析框架,运用对数平均迪氏分解法,将它们分解为规模效应、数量效应、装备效应和效率效应,揭示了4大效应对2003—2018年中国及其31个省域(不包括港澳台)粮食生产的影响程度。研究结果表明:1)无论在时间还是空间变化层面,数量效应都明显抑制了粮食生产,而规模效应和装备效应则显著促进了粮食生产,两者在粮食主产区表现尤为突出;2)2003—2018年,效率效应对全国层面的粮食生产由负向抑制变为正向驱动,对省域层面的24个省区呈现明显的负向驱动作用。为促进中国粮食产量持续稳定增产,建议持续加大对粮食主产区的政策和资金扶持,稳定其农业生产队伍,进一步强化粮食主销区的粮食安全责任,因地制宜地促进不同区域粮食生产的机械化发展。

    Abstract:

    Rural labor transfer and agricultural mechanization are interacted and interrelated, and jointly propel the change of grain production in China. To better promote China’s grain production and to improve national grain security, this paper constructed an analytical framework of grain production change under the integrated impacts of rural labor transfer and agricultural mechanization by the Kaya identical equation and the Logarithmic Mean Weigh Division Index Method, which examines the integrated impacts based on four driving forces, including the scale effect, the quantity effect, the equipment effect, and the efficiency effect, representing the scale of grain planted area, the input of rural labor force per acer, the per capita possession of agricultural machinery, and the grain yield, respectively. In addition, this paper also analyzed the influences of the four driving effects on grain production in China and its 31 provinces (not including Hongkong, Macao and Taiwan) from 2003 to 2018. Results show that: 1) whether from the temporal or the spatial perspective, the influence of the quantity effect on grain production was obviously negative, while the influences of the scale effect and the equipment effect on grain production were significantly positive, which were quite typical in major grain producing areas; 2) From 2003 to 2018, the influence of the efficiency effect on grain production changed from negative to positive at the national level. However, the influence was remarkably negative in 24 provinces at the provincial level. Therefore, to keep a sustainable and stable grain production increase in China’s major grain producing areas, it is necessary to continuously enhance supports in policy & finance, to stabilize rural labor force, to further strengthen grain security responsibility in main grain-consuming areas, and to promote the development of agricultural mechanization of grain production in different regions across the country.

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姚成胜,肖雅雯,杨一单. 农业劳动力转移与农业机械化对中国粮食生产的关联影响分析[J]. 农业现代化研究, 2022, 43(2): 306-317
YAO Cheng-sheng, XIAO Ya-wen, YANG Yi-dan. The integrated impacts of rural labor transfer and agricultural mechanization on China’s grain production[J]. Research of Agricultural Modernization, 2022, 43(2): 306-317

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  • 收稿日期:2021-10-28
  • 最后修改日期:2022-03-16
  • 录用日期:2022-03-16
  • 在线发布日期: 2022-04-21
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