重大突发疫病对我国肉禽产业链市场价格的影响研究——以非洲猪瘟为例
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华中农业大学经济管理学院

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基金项目:

国家自然科学基金(72171099,71771101);中央高校基本科研业务费专项基金(2662020JGPYR04)。


The impacts of major animal diseases on the prices of China’s meat and poultry markets: Evidence from the African swine fever
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Affiliation:

Huazhong Agricultural University

Fund Project:

National Natural Science Foundation of China (72171099, 71771101); Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (2662020JGPYR04).

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    摘要:

    非洲猪瘟造成我国生猪存栏量急剧下滑,生猪价格快速上涨。由于产品替代,鸡肉和牛肉产业也遭受冲击,价格持续上涨。但是,肉禽市场价格上涨在多大程度上是由非洲猪瘟导致的,非洲猪瘟对肉禽产业链横向与纵向市场价格的影响是否有异,目前还未被充分讨论。为此,本文运用样本外预测法开展反事实推断,探究非洲猪瘟对猪肉、鸡肉和牛肉市场的上、中、下游价格的净影响,进而基于有向无环图和历史分解法分析非洲猪瘟下肉禽产业链价格间的变动关系。研究表明:非洲猪瘟爆发15个月后,生猪价格和猪肉零售价净增长率分别达到266%和184%。随后两个月内,猪肉批发价、鸡肉批发和零售价、牛肉批发和零售价的净增长率也相继达到最高值。非洲猪瘟爆发期间,生猪价格、猪肉批发和零售价是导致鸡肉和牛肉零售价格上涨的主要原因。在此基础上提出应完善动物疫病长效防控机制和信息监测体系,加强肉禽产业链建设,优化畜禽产业结构以有效降低重大突发疫病对肉禽市场价格的冲击力度。

    Abstract:

    The African swine fever caused a sharp decline in China’s hog stock and a rapid increase in hog price. Due to product substitution, the chicken and beef industries were also impacted, and prices continued to rise. However, the influencing degree and direction of the African swine fever on the price hikes of meat and poultry products were not examined systematically. Therefore, applying the out-of-sample prediction method, this paper explored the net impact of the African swine fever on the upstream, middle, and downstream prices of pork, chicken, and beef markets in China and analyzed the relationship between the prices of meat and poultry industry chains under the influence of the African swine fever based on the directed acyclic graph and historical decomposition method. Results show that 15 months after the African swine fever outbreak, the net growth of hog and pork retail prices reached 266% and 184%, respectively. In the following two months, the net growth of pork wholesale price, chicken wholesale price, chicken retail price, beef wholesale, and retail price also reached the highest point. During the outbreak of the African swine fever, the wholesale and retail prices of hog and pork were the main reasons for the rise in the retail prices of chicken and beef. In order to reduce the impacts of major animal diseases on the prices of meat and poultry markets, this paper suggests to improve the long-term animal disease prevention mechanism and information monitoring system, to strengthen the construction of meat and poultry industry chains, and to optimize the livestock and poultry industry structure.

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何雯霞,熊涛,尚燕. 重大突发疫病对我国肉禽产业链市场价格的影响研究——以非洲猪瘟为例[J]. 农业现代化研究, 2022, 43(2): 318-327
HE Wen-xia, XIONG Tao, SHANG Yan. The impacts of major animal diseases on the prices of China’s meat and poultry markets: Evidence from the African swine fever[J]. Research of Agricultural Modernization, 2022, 43(2): 318-327

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  • 收稿日期:2021-06-06
  • 最后修改日期:2022-01-11
  • 录用日期:2022-01-12
  • 在线发布日期: 2022-04-21
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