Huazhong Agricultural University
National Natural Science Foundation of China (72171099, 71771101); Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities (2662020JGPYR04).
The African swine fever caused a sharp decline in China’s hog stock and a rapid increase in hog price. Due to product substitution, the chicken and beef industries were also impacted, and prices continued to rise. However, the influencing degree and direction of the African swine fever on the price hikes of meat and poultry products were not examined systematically. Therefore, applying the out-of-sample prediction method, this paper explored the net impact of the African swine fever on the upstream, middle, and downstream prices of pork, chicken, and beef markets in China and analyzed the relationship between the prices of meat and poultry industry chains under the influence of the African swine fever based on the directed acyclic graph and historical decomposition method. Results show that 15 months after the African swine fever outbreak, the net growth of hog and pork retail prices reached 266% and 184%, respectively. In the following two months, the net growth of pork wholesale price, chicken wholesale price, chicken retail price, beef wholesale, and retail price also reached the highest point. During the outbreak of the African swine fever, the wholesale and retail prices of hog and pork were the main reasons for the rise in the retail prices of chicken and beef. In order to reduce the impacts of major animal diseases on the prices of meat and poultry markets, this paper suggests to improve the long-term animal disease prevention mechanism and information monitoring system, to strengthen the construction of meat and poultry industry chains, and to optimize the livestock and poultry industry structure.
何雯霞,熊涛,尚燕. 重大突发疫病对我国肉禽产业链市场价格的影响研究——以非洲猪瘟为例[J]. 农业现代化研究, 2022, 43(2): 318-327
HE Wen-xia, XIONG Tao, SHANG Yan. The impacts of major animal diseases on the prices of China’s meat and poultry markets: Evidence from the African swine fever[J]. Research of Agricultural Modernization, 2022, 43(2): 318-327