The key to recovering hog production and to improving the security of pork supply depends on farmers’ production decision. Based on a micro-data obtained from the field survey in Shandong, Hebei, Sichuan, Heilongjiang, and Beijing, this study empirically analyzed the factors influencing farmers’ production decision under the background of African swine flu epidemic by the ordered Logit model. Results show that only 24.38% of farmers surveyed are willing to expand the scale of breeding, while 56.25% choose to keep the scale unchanged, and 19.38% decide to reduce the scale of hog breeding or gradually to withdraw from hog industry in the future. The high proportion of breeding income to the total household income, the rise in the hog price, and the understanding of the subsidy policy for the construction of local breeding farms have significant influences on farmers’ decision to expand the breeding scale. Among them, understanding the local farm construction subsidy policy has the greatest impact. However, the decision-makers’ age, the purchase of breeding insurance, and the increase of breeding cost have significant constraint impacts on farmers’ decision to expand the breeding scale. The education level of the decision-maker, the size of household, the family loan, the scale of breeding, the participation in cooperative organizations, and the distance from the epidemic spot of African swine flu have no significant impacts on farmers’ production decision. Based on the above results, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions, including perfecting the supporting policy for hog industry to recover production, strengthening the propaganda of policy support, improving the system of hog breeding insurance, innovating the hog breeding insurance products, and training new professional farmers to recover hog production as soon as possible.