Grain security is a critical issue related to our national economy and people’s livelihood and the change of grain production pattern has a potential impact on the balance of grain supply and demand. Based on a provincial panel data of 31 administrative regions in China 1997 to 2016, this paper analyzed the evolution path of China’s grain production base by the barycenter model. Results show that: in the past 20 years (1997—2016), the grain production base of China has shifted to the northeast by about 172.56 km, and the base now mainly concentrates in the central region of Henan Province. In addition, this paper tried to identify the influencing factors by a fixed effect model. Estimation results indicate that per capita cultivated land area, effective irrigation area, fertilizer application, mechanization, grain crop sowing ratio and replanting index have significant positive influences on grain yield, and these factors drive the grain production base to move the northern region. Based on the above results, to ensure grain security in China, this paper suggests to protect the quantity and quality of the cultivated land, to increase agricultural input and technological input, to explore diversified agricultural subsidies, and to construct the coordination mechanism of regional grain supply and demand.