中国粮食生产中化肥过量施用评价及影响因素研究
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中国农业大学经济管理学院,100083 北京,中国农业大学经济管理学院,中国农业大学经济管理学院

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国家自然科学基金项目(71273262);粮食公益性行业科研专项(201513004-2)。


Evaluation of over fertilization in China and its influencing factors
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School of Economics and Management,China Agricultural University,College of Economics and Management, China Agricultural University,School of Economics and Management,China Agricultural University

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National Natural Science Foundation of China (71273262); Special Fund for Agro-scientific Research in the Public Interest (201513004-2).

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    摘要:

    通过大量施用化肥获得高产是当前中国粮食生产中比较普遍的现象。基于2004-2013年省级农成品成本收益面板数据,对我国三种主要粮食作物生产中的化肥过量施用程度进行测算,并实证分析造成化肥施用过量的原因。结果表明,目前中国粮食生产中的化肥施用量已经超过了其经济意义上的最优施用量,无论是小麦、水稻还是玉米均存在过量施肥的现象;玉米生产中的过量施肥程度平均达到50.74%;小麦和水稻生产中的过量施肥程度相对较轻,分别为27.26%和24.67%。农业劳动力非农转移、自然灾害和上一年粮食价格对农户化肥过量施用具有显著正向影响,当前“咨询与经营相结合”的农技推广体系也在一定程度上导致了农户对化肥的过量施用;而适当扩大粮食种植规模则有助于缓解化肥过量施用。为促进化肥减量施用,除应用技术上的手段外,还应当重视社会经济的调控作用。例如,对当前大规模的农业劳动力非农转移进行适当干预;推进基层农业技术推广机构改革,改变目前“咨询与经营相结合”的农技推广体系;发展农业保险,提高农户的自然风险抵抗能力等。

    Abstract:

    It is normal to increase grain production by applying large quantity of fertilizer in China. Based on provincial level cost-benefit survey data of agricultural products from 2004 to 2013, this paper evaluated the over fertilization phenomena in the production of wheat, rice, and corn in China and also empirically analyzed the influencing factors of over fertilization. Results show that from the economic perspective, the fertilization quantity has passed the economic optimal level for all these three crops in China. Among them, corn producers are overusing fertilizer by up to 50.74%, wheat producers by up to 27.26%, and rice producers by up to 24.67%. Migration of rural labors, disaster area ratio, crop prices of previous year and the current extension service system have significant positive influences on the magnitude of over fertilization; while properly expansion of management scale does help to relieve this phenomenon. To decrease fertilizer application, this paper provides the following suggestions: improving fertilizer application technology, moderately intervening agricultural labor force transfer, reforming the current agricultural extension system, and developing and promoting agricultural insurance to increase farmers’ risk resistance capacity.

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史常亮,郭焱,朱俊峰. 中国粮食生产中化肥过量施用评价及影响因素研究[J]. 农业现代化研究, 2016, 37(4): 671-679
Shi Changliang, GUO Yan, ZHU Junfeng. Evaluation of over fertilization in China and its influencing factors[J]. Research of Agricultural Modernization, 2016, 37(4): 671-679

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  • 收稿日期:2015-11-02
  • 最后修改日期:2016-03-22
  • 录用日期:2016-04-08
  • 在线发布日期: 2016-07-22
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