长江冲积平原县域气候与气候生产力变化分析——以湖北嘉鱼县为例
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(陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院,陕西 西安 710119)

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吴梦初(1990-),陕西蒲城人,女,研究生,主要从事区域开发与城乡发展等方面研究;通讯作者:延军平,男,教授,博导,从事区域自然灾害和区域开发研究。

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国家自然科学基金项目:“部分重大自然灾害的时空对称性:结构、机理与适应对策”(编号:41171090)。


Influence of Climate Changing to Climate Productivity at County Level in Yangtze River Alluvial Plain——A Case Study in Jiayu County, Hubei Province
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(College of Tourism and Environment Science, Shaanxi Normal University, Shaanxi, Xi’an 710119)

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    摘要:

    根据嘉鱼县1957-2012年的气象资料,利用Thomthwaite Memoria模型,分析了气候变化对该县气候生产力的影响情况。结果表明:(1)近56年嘉鱼县气候经历了冷干-冷湿-暖湿的转变,年均温为17.22℃,年均降水量为1399.9mm,分别以0.221℃/10a和 10.961mm/10a的速率呈波动上升趋势。(2)近56年嘉鱼县四季气温均呈上升趋势,其中春季增温速率最快,夏季增温速率最慢;四季降水变化表现为:春秋两季减少,夏冬两季分别以19.333mm/10a和6.810mm/10a的速度递增。总体来看,嘉鱼县气候有暖湿化趋势。(3)未来不同情境气候分析发现:“暖湿型”气候背景下气候生产力最优,平均增幅5.34%-15.68%,“冷干型”气候背景下气候生产力最差,平均减幅5.48%-17.05%。目前,嘉鱼县“暖湿化”气候环境对气候生产力是有利的。

    Abstract:

    After analyzing the climate change trend in Jiayu County, Hubei Province, based on the date of the main meteorological factors observed during the period of 1957-2012, the response of climate productivity to climate change is calculated and predicted by using the Thomthwaite Memoria model. The results show: (1) in the last 56 years, the climate tendency has changed from cold-dry to cold-wet, end with warm-wet. The annual average temperature and rainfall are 17.22℃ and 1399.9mm, respectively increased with the rate of 0.221℃/10a and 10.961mm/10a. (2) Seasonal temperature rise at different rates, but seasonal precipitation trend is not uniform. It has witnessed decreased trend in spring and autumn while it appears increasing trend in summer and winter with the speed of 19.333 mm /10a and 6.810mm/10a. Overall, the warming-drying climate tendency is obvious. (3)The warm-wet climate environment was the most advantageous to the agricultural production of Jiayu County whose production number was 5.34%-15.68%, while the cold-dry climate was the most disadvantageous to the agricultural production whose production scope was 5.48%-17.05%. Nowadays, the warming-wetting climate tendency of Jiayu County is benefit to climate productivity.

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吴梦初,延军平,李敏敏. 长江冲积平原县域气候与气候生产力变化分析——以湖北嘉鱼县为例[J]. 农业现代化研究, 2014, 35(2): 209-212
WU Meng-chu, YAN Jun-ping, LI Min-min. Influence of Climate Changing to Climate Productivity at County Level in Yangtze River Alluvial Plain——A Case Study in Jiayu County, Hubei Province[J]. Research of Agricultural Modernization, 2014, 35(2): 209-212

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  • 收稿日期:2013-11-15
  • 最后修改日期:2013-12-27
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  • 在线发布日期: 2014-04-04
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