(1.南昌大学经济与管理学院，江西 南昌 330031;2. 江西师范大学外国语学院，江西 南昌 330022)
(1. College of Economics and Management, Nanchang University, Nanchang, Jiangxi 330031, China;2. Foreign Languages College, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang, Jiangxi 330022, China)
Taking Henan Province as a study area, the grain consumption structures change from 1991 to 2008 has been analyzed, and then the contribution index to China’s food security (CICFS) of Henan Province has been constructed to analyze the contribution degree of Henan’s grain production to China’s food security changes. The results showed that: (1) during the study period, the average growth rate of grain consumption in Henan Province was 3.61% which is 0.15% higher than the growth rate of grain production. The grain ration kept relative steady and showed a slightly decreasing trend. (2) During 1991 to 2008, the feed grain and industrial grain kept increasing quickly, and their average growth rates are 7.94% and 12.06% separately, which are 2.20 times and 3.34 times as that of the grain production growth rate respectively. In the year of 2004, the consumption amount of feed grain exceeded the consumption amount of grain ration and became the largest part of grain consumption. (3) Animal husbandry, aquiculture and food industry were important industries in Henan Province for the government to improve the farmer’s income and to increase the level of regional economic development, therefore the feed grain and the industrial grain consumption would still keep increasing in the near future, which would threaten Henan’s food security. (4) During the study period, the contribution rate of Henan Province to China’s food security experienced four stages which are the rapid decreasing stage, fluctuating stage, slowly decreasing stage and rapid increasing stage. The average mean value of CICFS of Henan Province was 4.43%, which meant that Henan Province not only maintained its own food security as a large population province, but also contributed a lot to China’s food security in the past 18 years.
姚成胜,黄 琳,吕 晞. 河南省粮食消费结构变化及其对我国粮食安全的贡献率分析[J]. 农业现代化研究, 2014, 35(2): 163-167
YAO Cheng-sheng, HUANG Lin, LV Xi. Grain Demand Structure Change in Henan and Its Contribution Rate to China’s Food Security[J]. Research of Agricultural Modernization, 2014, 35(2): 163-167