Empirical Analysis of Urbanization Development and Farmers’ Income Growthin Anhui Province Based on Spatial Econometric Model

By using the exploratory spatial data analysis method, the spatial autocorrelation of the farmers’ income and urbanization development in Anhui Province and the evolution of local agglomeration spatial pattern is measured, based on which, the spatial Tobit models and spatial lag models for the relation between the urbanization development and farmers’ income in 2000 and 2010 were built respectively, and the impact of the urbanization development on farmers’ income and the changing trend is studied. The result shows that the rural residents’ income in Anhui Province presents a positive spatial autocorrelation, the low-income agglomeration area has transferred from the west area of Anhui to the northwest area, and the high-income agglomeration area extends along the “two points and one axis” of the urban belt in Anhui Province along the Yangtze river; the urbanization development presents a pattern with Huaibei as the “pole” and with Chaohu as the “low-lying land”; the spatial econometric model is used to analyze and show that the spatial spillover effect of farmers’ income can significantly help increases the farmers’ income and avoid the overestimation of impact in the classical regression model due to ignoring the spatial elements, and the urbanization development can help the farmers increase their income, comparing to 2000, its impact increased by 188.67% in 2010. While the single agricultural structure does not benefit the increase of farmers’ income, especially the lack of non-agricultural employment opportunities has restricted the growth of farmers’ wage income.