Analysis and Prediction of Location Advantage on Maize Production in Northeast of China

The authors studied variation of regional advantage on maize production in northeast of China by location quotient theory based on time-series data of grain production from 1978. And predicted its trend by ARIMA model from 2010 to 2015. The results shown that Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang all had location advantages comparing to the overall level of China in maize production from 1978. The location advantage of Jilin prior to Liaoning, and Liaoning to Heilongjiang, and their location advantages showed downward trend overall from 1978. The maize capacity of Northeast will rise slightly from 2010 to 2015 without considering the impact of exogenous variables, but the location advantage of Jilin and Liaoning will be further weakened as Heilongjiang take on modest fluctuations but more smooth. In order to stabilize the location advantage on maize production of Northeast, we can take core maize producing area construction and improve yields by technology progress as main strategies.