Brand empowerment for farmland protection: does geographical indication certification promote the dynamic balance of cultivated land?

The “Central Document No. 1” of 2025 emphasizes the strict control of the total amount of cultivated land to ensure its annual dynamic balance. Using historical data on cultivated land from 2,827 counties (districts and cities) across China between 1986 and 2021, this study constructs a quantitative indicator to measure the dynamic balance of total cultivated land. Taking the certification of geographical indications of agricultural products (GI) as an exogenous shock, a multi-period difference-in-differences (DID) model is employed to assess the impact of agricultural branding on the dynamic balance of cultivated land. The empirical results show that: 1) GI certification significantly improves the dynamic balance of cultivated land at the county level; 2) mechanism analysis indicates that GI certification indirectly enhances land balance by promoting agricultural industrialization and reducing population outflow; 3) heterogeneity analysis reveals that the promoting effect of GI certification is more significant in non-grain-producing areas, multiple-cropping regions, and non-poverty counties, with planting-type GIs showing stronger effects than other types; 4) GI certification generates positive spatial spillover effects on adjacent uncertified counties and significantly mitigates the negative impacts of climate risks on the dynamic balance of cultivated land. The findings suggest that GI certification plays an important role in improving the dynamic balance of cultivated land. In the future, policymakers should establish a policy loop of “increment-quality-layout” to further enhance policy effectiveness by expanding brand quantity, improving brand quality, and optimizing spatial brand layout.