Theoretical mechanism study on the promotion of agricultural industry chain resilience by new infrastructure construction

Against the backdrop of overlapping internal and external risks, new infrastructure construction has become a key measure for enhancing the resilience of the agricultural industrial chain. Based on provincial panel data from China spanning 2011 to 2020, this study employs the entropy weight method to measure the levels of new infrastructure construction and agricultural industrial chain resilience. A two-way fixed effects model, a mediating effect model, and a moderating effect model are used to empirically examine the mechanisms at play. The findings indicate that: 1) new infrastructure construction significantly promotes agricultural industrial chain resilience, a conclusion supported by multiple robustness tests; 2) due to differences in economic foundations and industrial structures, the effect of new infrastructure construction is insignificant in eastern regions, while it shows a significant positive effect in central and western regions with strong policy support and high development potential. In major grain-producing areas, new infrastructure construction has a stronger effect due to economies of scale, whereas its impact is relatively limited in non-grain-producing areas with fragmented industrial layouts; 3) new infrastructure construction indirectly enhances agricultural industrial chain resilience by promoting the upgrading of the agricultural industrial structure; 4) higher levels of social consumption significantly and positively moderate the effect of new infrastructure construction on agricultural industrial chain resilience.