The spatio-temporal evolving pattern and the influencing factors of grain production in the Yangtze River Economic Belt

Food security concerns the national interest and people’s livelihood. Studying grain production in the Yangtze River Economic Belt under the new economic norm is of great significance to guarantee food security in the Yangtze River Basin, thus promoting a harmonious, stable, and healthy development of China’s economy and society. Combining the variation coefficient, the Theil index, the exploratory spatial data analysis, and the center of gravity shift models, this paper explored the spatio-temporal evolution of grain production in the Yangtze River Economic Belt between 1999 and 2018 and studied the driving factors affecting the spatial heterogeneity through geographical weighted regression model. Results show that: 1) The overall difference of grain production in the Yangtze River Economic Belt was expanding, which was mainly caused by the difference within the Belt, with an average contribution of 98.09%; 2) Grain production of the Yangtze River Economic Belt had a significant positive agglomeration feature and showed a variation trend of “strengthening - weakening - strengthening” pattern over time. Meanwhile, the local spatial autocorrelation test shows that the high-high areas were mainly situated in Jianghuai Plain, while the low-low areas were situated in the ethnic minority areas in western Sichuan and Yunnan province as well as most cities in Zhejiang province; 3) The gravity center of grain production moved between 111.77°E~112.68°E, 29.81°N~30.15°N, and shifted alternately in the northeast and southwest, and 4) Application of chemical fertilizer and the total population had positive effects on grain production, while economic development had an inhibitory effect. Therefore, based on the spatial difference of production inputs and the social and economic strength, to improve the overall grain production capacity of the Yangtze River Economic Belt and eventually to ensure national food security, this paper suggests to optimize fertilization structure by adopting soil testing and formula technology, to promote agricultural machinery agronomic depth fusion, and to realize the grain varieties, cultivation technique and integrated supporting measures, such as machinery and equipment.