China’s grain trade with countries along the “One Belt and One Road” and the estimation of the virtual water and farmland resources

Since the launch of the “One Belt and One Road” initiative, China’s grain trade with countries along the route has become increasingly close. Taking rice, wheat, corn, and soybean as examples, this paper examines the evolution of grain trade trends between China and those countries from 2001 to 2018 and estimates China’s net imports of virtual water and farmland resources. Results show that the scale of grain trade between China and the countries along the route has continued to expand, and the total amount of China’s net imported virtual farmland and water resources embodied has been increasing rapidly. Since the start of the “One Belt and One Road” initiative in 2013, China’s net imports of grain from countries along the route have totaled 35.717 3 million tons, with an average annual net import of virtual water resources of 5.249 billion m3 and an average annual net import of virtual farmland resources of 1.226 2 million hectares. In terms of the grain varieties, rice and corn are the main grains traded between China and countries along the route, while net imports of wheat and soybeans are still small. As for the import sources, rice trade and virtual farmland and water resources embodied are mainly from four Southeast Asian countries and Pakistan, while those of wheat are mainly from Kazakhstan. Corn trade and virtual water and farmland resources are dominated by Ukraine, while those of soybean trade generally come from Russia. However, relatively speaking, China’s net import of virtual water and farmland resources via grain trade from the route countries accounted for less than 10% of the total amount imported by the country from the world market. This means that the grain trade between China and the countries along the Belt and Road only alleviates the pressure of the shortage of domestic water and farmland resources to a certain extent, and the potential is still to be tapped.