Jilin Province takes the lead in realizing the development of agricultural modernization

Achieving agricultural modernization is a necessary way to promote the high-quality development of rural revitalization, which is an inevitable choice to crack the contradiction of unbalanced and insufficient development between urban and rural areas, to transform the development mode of agricultural and rural economy, and to improve the quality of rural economic development. Meanwhile, it is of great significance to promote farmers’ sustainable income, to improve the quality and efficiency of agricultural development, and to promote the high-quality development of rural economy. Based on Jilin Province data from 2004 to 2018, this paper constructed a comprehensive evaluation index system for Jilin Province to evaluate its leading role in agricultural modernization by the entropy value method and GM(1, 1) gray prediction model, predicted the future development level, and explored the trend and variability of its agricultural modernization development. Results show that the development index of agricultural modernization in Jilin Province rose from 0.373 9 in 2004 to 0.676 0 in 2018, with a rise of 80.8%, and the overall development level gradually improved. The development level of agricultural modernization varied among regions, and the development level of agricultural modernization in central region was higher than those in other regions. From the prediction analysis, this paper finds that the overall agricultural modernization development level of Jilin Province will reach the first realization stage in 2033, and the development level of agricultural modernization in Jilin Province will be improved comprehensively in this period. In terms of influencing factors, the development level of each subsystem affects the development level of agricultural modernization in Jilin Province and each region in different degrees. In addition, the difficulty of Jilin Province’s agricultural modernization development lies in how to improve the quality and efficiency of Jilin Province’s agricultural development, and how each region can rely on its agricultural resource endowment and location advantages to achieve high-quality agricultural development. In summary, this paper provides some policy suggestions for Jilin Province to take the lead in modernizing agricultural development: 1) the Government should accelerate provincial high-quality agricultural development with a focus on quality and efficiency; 2) eastern region should promote green and low-carbon agricultural development; 3) central region should accelerate agricultural science and technology innovation to enhance the quality and efficiency of agricultural development; and 4) western region can deepen the construction of modernized agricultural management system as an effective countermeasure.