The effect of the aging of agricultural labor force on the change of grain green total factor productivity

Based on the data of grain production in 27 provinces from 1991 to 2016 and applying the method of Unit Investigation and Evaluation, this paper estimated the pollution emissions of grain production in each province and evaluated the green total factor productivity index (GTFPI) of grain production in each province by the Global Malmquist-Luenberger (GML) index and Directional Distance Function. In addition, this paper also empirically examined the impacts of the aging of agricultural labors on the GEFPI. Results indicate that: 1) The GTFPI in most provinces and regions were increasing gradually during the sample period. But it was still inefficient. In addition, the GTFPIs varied in different provinces and regions. The GTFPIs in main grain producing areas were better than those in the main sales areas and balanced areas; 2) There was a significant U-shaped relationship between the aging of agricultural labor force and the GTFPI. That is, with the aging of agricultural labor force, the GTFPI decreased first and then increased. Moreover, further research finds that this relationship was stable in the main grain producing area, the main sales areas and the balanced areas; 3) The ratio of salary in farmers’ total income and disaster rate had negative effects on the GTFPI. The financial support for agriculture could significantly improve the GTFPI.