Influencing factors of farmland circulation from the spatial dependence perspective

Rural farmland circulation has profound evolutionary regularities in terms of time and space. It is of great significance to optimize current farmland policies by exploring the spatial dependence of each transaction behavior. Based on a cross-provincial panel data from 2009 to 2016 and applying the global spatial auto-correlation and spatial dependence models, this paper constructed an analytical framework, focusing on the spatial dependence of behaviors of farmland circulation, and divided farmland circulation behaviors into 2 types of circulation contracts, 6 types of circulation modes, and 4 types of circulation entities. Spatial econometric models have also been adopted to discuss the formation of spatial dependence of each behavior and how they were affected by influencing factors. Results show that: 1) the spatial dependence of different circulation behaviors is heterogeneous. From the global perspective, spatial convergence could only be detected saliently from the following 6 types of behaviors when using the geographic spatial matrix, i.e. Written Contracts, Subcontracting, Renting, Leasing Farmland to Farmers and Leasing Farmland to Professional Cooperatives, while other forms of behaviors show an irregular distribution; 2) the spatial dependence of each circulation behavior is time-variant. Written Contracts and Leasing Farmland to Farmers illustrate increasing degree of spatial dependence after 2009 and 2011 respectively. Transaction behaviors like Oral Contracts and Joint Land Stock Cooperation merely show strong spatial dependence in 2016; 3) Written Contracts show both exogenous and endogenous interaction effects simultaneously, while Subcontracting, Renting, Leasing Farmland to Farmers and Leasing Farmland to Professional Cooperatives only show strong exogenous interaction effects; and 4) regression analysis based on the Spatial Durbin Model shows that selected influencing factors impose direct effects and spillover effects on each circulation behavior inconsistently. The process of policy-making and adjustment of farmland policies demands for more attention towards understanding the spatial dependence characteristics and regularities of different circulation behaviors, with which more targeted farmland policies at the cross-regional or provincial level should be formed.