Avian influenza risk, spatial heterogeneity and restoration of poultry farmers in China

Poultry farming, which employs more rural labors and improves farmers’ welfare, is an important means of livelihood for Chinese farmers. However, poultry industry in China is facing the risk of avian influenza, resulting in heavy loss. Based on the data of the observation sites from four different geographic locations with high avian influenza risk in China from 2004 to 2012, and applying the Random Effect Probit model, this paper analyzed the spatial heterogeneity and formation causes of poultry breeding recovery behaviors in four regions under the impact of avian influenza. Result shows that 52.02% of the affected poultry farmers restarted their poultry farming after the avian influenza. Among them, the avian influenza caused the price rise of poultry products in the epidemic region and 86.84% of the affected poultry farmers in this region chose to restart their poultry farming after the avian influenza, with the highest recovery degree. While the market price of poultry products fell in the adjacent regions, and only 20.86% of the affected poultry farmers in the adjacent regions chose to restart their poultry farming after the avian influenza, with the lowest recovery degree. There is a significant difference in the behaviors of poultry breeding in the four regions after the outbreak of the avian influenza, and the recovery behaviors of poultry farmers are related to the market price changes of poultry products in the region which is caused by the epidemic. Therefore, in order to develop a more accurate post disaster support subsidy policy, this paper suggests to pay attention to the spatial heterogeneity of the impacts of avian influenza on poultry households, to give full consideration to the price changes of poultry products in the adjacent regions or even farther regions, to expand the scope of policy attention, to establish agricultural insurance mechanism, and to perfect the mechanism of price compensation.