Research on multiple paths of agricultural digitalization driving cultivation of new quality agricultural productivity: a dynamic QCA configuration analysis

With the rapid development of digital technology and the growing demand for agricultural modernization, agricultural digitization has become a critical pathway for promoting high-quality agricultural development. Based on provincial panel data from 30 provinces in China from 2016 to 2022, this study adopts the “Technology–Organization–Environment” (TOE) framework and applies a dynamic Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) method to systematically examine the multi-factor linkage effects of digital technology, digital organization, and digital environment in driving the cultivation of new quality agricultural productivity from both spatial and temporal dimensions. The results identify multiple configurations for achieving high-level new quality agricultural productivity. The study finds that the cultivation of such productivity relies on the synergistic effects of multiple factors, with a substitution effect observed between technological and organizational conditions, while the digital transformation of the agricultural industry plays a relatively limited role. The identified configurations include three main types: technology–organization substitution, environment-led, and technology-led. Furthermore, the development of new quality agricultural productivity exhibits significant temporal characteristics, with some configurations undergoing dynamic evolution. There are also notable differences in applicable configuration paths between regions with high and low levels of agricultural digitization. These findings provide a theoretical foundation and policy reference for promoting region-specific digital agricultural development and cultivating high-level new quality agricultural productivity.