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农村产业融合、人力资本与县域经济韧性

Rural industrial integration, human capital, and regional economic resilience at county level

  • 摘要: 农村产业融合作为提升县域经济韧性的关键所在,对稳定经济增长与抵御风险具有极其重要的现实意义。本研究基于浙江省2008—2023年间53个县域经济发展状况,构建了农村产业融合对县域经济韧性的影响机制模型,采用双向固定效应、中介效应检验、门槛效应检验等方法实证分析了农村产业融合、人力资本和县域经济韧性之间的作用机制。结果表明:1)农村产业融合对县域经济韧性具有显著的促进作用;2)农村产业融合通过人力资本效应提升县域经济韧性;3)农村产业融合对浙东北地区的正向促进作用较强,对浙西南地区呈现较小负向影响,且在恢复调整期、冲击适应期正向促进作用较强,冲击抵御期影响较弱;4)农村产业融合对县域经济韧性存在创新能力的单一门槛效应。由此建议从加强农村产业融合、推动县域科技创新、提升园区集聚水平、实现县域因地制宜等方面促进人力资本效应,提升县域经济韧性。

     

    Abstract: Rural industrial integration plays a crucial role in boosting county level economic resilience, significantly enhancing economic stability and risk management capabilities. Based on a panel data from 53 counties in Zhejiang from 2008 to 2023, this study constructs a mechanism model to analyze how rural industrial integration affects economic resilience by using the two-way fixed effects model and the intermediary test and threshold test methods. Results show that: 1) rural industrial integration strongly promotes county level economic resilience; 2) rural industrial integration enhances county level economic resilience through human capital effects; 3) rural industrial integration exerts a strongly positive influence in northeastern Zhejiang, whereas it poses a slight negative impact on the southwestern part of the province. Furthermore, its influence is markedly positive during the recovery-adjustment and shock-adaptation phases but becomes relatively weak throughout the impact resistance period; and 4) there is a single threshold effect of innovation ability on the economic resilience of counties in rural industrial integration. Accordingly, the study suggests: enhancing human capital by deepening rural industrial integration, advancing county-level technological innovation, optimizing industrial park agglomeration, and adopting localized development strategies to strengthen county level economic resilience.

     

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