Abstract:
Henan Province faces numerous challenges, including a delicate ecological environment, limited ecological carrying capacity, and a substantial carbon emission foundation, all of which significantly impede the successful execution of the dual carbon strategy. This study aims to comprehensively investigate the influence of land use changes on the spatiotemporal distribution of carbon emissions in Henan Province. Additionally, it seeks to furnish the government with a scientific foundation for crafting models of low-carbon land use and implementing tailored policies for reducing carbon emissions. Utilizing land use and energy consumption data spanning from 2000 to 2020 in Henan Province, in conjunction with the land use carbon emission methodology and ArcGIS technology, this research quantifies both the spatial and temporal carbon emission patterns within the province. Furthermore, it employs the geographic detector method to analyze the factors contributing to the spatial disparities in land use-related carbon emissions in Henan Province. The findings indicated that construction land and arable land constitute the primary carbon sources in Henan Province, while forest land serves as the predominant carbon sink, responsible for absorbing more than 90% of the total carbon sequestration. In general, carbon emissions in Henan Province exhibited a pattern of rapid expansion followed by gradual reduction. Specifically, emissions increased from 33.67 million metric tonnes in 2000 to 73.37 million metric tonnes in 2010, marking a growth rate of 118%. Subsequently, from 2010 to 2020, emissions decreased by 5.247 million metric tonnes, representing a decline rate of 7%. The study revealed noteworthy disparities in carbon emission levels among various cities, an imbalance in carbon budgets and expenditures in certain urban areas, and regional carbon absorption inadequately offsetting carbon emissions. Moreover, the results of the impact analysis indicated that the level of urbanization, population size, and the proportion of construction land had a substantial influence on carbon emissions from 2000 to 2020. Notably, the q value related to construction land witnessed the most significant increase, and the q value associated with population size reached its peak in 2020, both exerting substantial influence on carbon emissions within Henan Province. In order to move towards low-carbon land use and make good policies in Henan Province, it is very important to look into how changes in land use affect carbon emissions and the patterns of those emissions, as well as to figure out what causes those patterns.