Abstract:
To clarify the changing trend of meat consumption structure of domestic consumers after the outbreak of African swine fever to form a basis for the subsequent formulation and implementation of policies to stabilize the pig market, and to provide a reference for future research on the changes of meat consumption behaviors after the outbreak of other animal diseases. Based on a panel data of 31 provinces and cities in China (except Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan) from 2015 to 2020, this paper explored the impacts of African swine fever on the meat consumption structure from both theoretical and empirical aspects by the difference-in-differences method and verified its mechanism by the moderating effect model. Results show that: 1) African swine fever has led to a significant decline in the total per capita meat consumption in China, of which pork has the most significant downward trend, and poultry meat has increased significantly as a main substitute for pork; 2) there are obvious differences in the impacts of African swine fever on meat consumption between urban and rural consumers. The consumption changes of rural consumers and the overall consumers of the country are consistent, and rural consumers are more affected by African swine fever. For urban consumers, African swine fever will also reduce their total meat consumption and pork consumption, but not significantly. Unlike rural consumers, poultry and beef together become pork substitutes selected by urban consumers; and 3) consumer's disposable income has a significant regulatory effect on the impacts of African swine fever on consumers' total meat and pork consumption. The lower the disposable income becomes after the occurrence of African swine fever, the more the total meat and pork consumption declines.