Abstract: Climate change affects the comparative advantage of crops by changing the environmental endowment. In the context of the “soybean revitalization plan” proposed by the “No. 1 document” of the Central Government in 2019, will farmers adjust the planting structure or the input of means of production according to climate? How will it affect soybean planting acreage? What is the mechanism of reactions? Based on 3 560 samples of 178 cities from 1998 to 2017, this paper investigated the effects of climate change on soybean planting acreage by the Dynamic Panel Differential Generalized Moment Model (DIF-GMM). Results show that sunshine duration, temperature and precipitation affect the proportion of soybean planting acreage. Further analysis of the mechanism shows that climate change mainly affects the proportion of soybean planting acreage by affecting soybean yield per unit area. Farmers’ adaptive behaviors play a regulatory role in the impact of climate change on the proportion of soybean acreage. Among them, irrigation, plastic film, and chemical fertilizer have some positive regulatory effects on the impact of temperature on soybean acreage, and irrigation is the main factor to adjust the change of precipitation. At the same time, the import volume, relative income, and production costs are also the important factors affecting the proportion of soybean planting acreage. On this basis, this paper also uses the Panel Vector Autoregressive Model (PVAR) to predict the path and the extent of the dynamic impact of climate change and farmers’ adaptive behaviors on the proportion of soybean acreage in the next decade. Results show that in the short term, the amount of chemical fertilizer and plastic film will affect the proportion of soybean acreage through the adjustment of climate change. Sunshine duration, precipitation, irrigation and the use of plastic film will have a long-term impact on the proportion of soybean acreage.