Abstract:
Based on the weekly data from August 2018 to June 2019, this paper constructed an African swine fever public opinion index as the measurement indicator of the epidemic situation and applied the VAR model, the Granger causality test, the impulse response and other measurement methods to explore the dynamic impacts of the change of public opinion index of African swine fever on the price fluctuation of livestock and poultry meat products. Results indicate that the public opinion of African swine fever affects the prices of different meat products, but the impulses and impacts of different meat products are different and dynamic. Among them, the public attention on African swine fever epidemic has the greatest impact on pork price and chicken price, followed by duck meat, and finally beef and lamb. Lamb price has received the least impact. African swine fever public opinion has a rapid impact on the price of meat market, and the impact on the price of meat other than pork does not last for a long time. The change of African swine fever public opinion index has a combination of positive and negative effects on various meats, and this effect has a reverse effect in the later period. The information of African swine fever epidemic can be transmitted smoothly in the meat industry. Based on this research, it is suggested that the government should incorporate African swine fever public opinion into the price early warning system of livestock and poultry market to strengthen the monitoring of the epidemic. Relevant departments should actively assist relevant companies to guide the public opinion of the epidemic in an orderly manner. At the same time, the production capacity of poultry meat should be strictly controlled to avoid the disorderly expansion of poultry production and the imbalance between supply and demand.