Abstract:
Impacted by the African swine fever, pork price in China has risen. Based on the macro statistic data and the Nerlove model, this paper analyzed the impacts of rising prices on pork supply, household consumption and the CPI in the aim of improving the policies of restoring pork market supply, protecting residents’ consumption demand, and stabilizing pork price. Results show that, besides lagged production and lagged chicken price, the rising pork price has a significant positive impact on pork supply which responses relatively slow in the short term and is sensitive in the long run. The African swine fever together with breeding costs and the delimitation of livestock and poultry breeding areas have significant negative impacts on pork supply. Additionally, the rising pork price also has a negative impact on the pork consumption of urban and rural residents, especially the residents in low-income areas and main production areas. While residents in ethnic minority areas in the northwest are less affected. The rise in pork prices contributes to the 34% rise in the CPI. Based on the above conclusions, this paper suggests to formulate support policies in the long term to stabilize hog production, and to regulate meat supply in the short term to stabilize pork prices. In addition, the relevant government agencies should enhance the pork price monitoring and early warning system. When the prices are too high, it is suggested to provide appropriate pork consumption subsidies to low-income consumers and residents in the main producing areas and to encourage urban and rural residents to increase consumption of other meat products.