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交通基础设施、农业机械化与我国水稻生产

Transportation infrastructure, agricultural mechanization, and rice production in China

  • 摘要: 运用1978—2016年我国省级面板数据,探究了交通基础设施、农业机械化和水稻生产时空变化特征,利用双向固定效应面板数据模型和中介效应检验模型,在多维要素框架下实证分析了交通基础设施和农业机械化对水稻生产的综合作用路径。研究表明:1)水稻产量经历了波动增加、快速减少和平稳增加的阶段,公路里程数和农业机械投入则先平稳后快速增长;2)各省水稻产量、公路里程数、农业机械投入的差异明显,水稻生产主要分界线发生了自“秦岭淮河线”向“400 mm等降水量线”的转变;3)公路里程数和农业机械投入增加均可显著促进水稻产量增加,且公路里程数对水稻产量的影响有直接和间接两条作用路径。因此,优化交通基础设施公共资源和农业机械化生产要素配置是提高水稻生产能力和保障我国粮食安全的重要途径。

     

    Abstract: Based on a provincial panel data from 1978 to 2016, this paper explores the temporal and spatial characteristics of transportation infrastructure, agricultural mechanization, and rice production, and applies the two-way fixed effect panel data model and the mediation effect test model to empirically analyze the comprehensive action path of transportation infrastructure and agricultural mechanization on rice production under the multi-dimensional factor framework. Results show that: 1) the rice production has experienced a period of increase with some fluctuations, rapid decrease and steady increase, while the highway mileage and agricultural machinery input have first increased steadily and then increased rapidly; 2) the differences of rice production, highway mileage, and agricultural machinery input in each province are obvious, and the main dividing line of rice production has changed from “Qinling Huaihe River line” to “400 mm precipitation line”; 3) the increase of highway mileage and agricultural machinery input can significantly promote the increase of rice production, and the influence of highway mileage on rice production has direct and indirect paths. Therefore, optimizing the allocation of public resources of transportation infrastructure and agricultural mechanization production factors is an important way to improve rice production capacity and to ensure food security in China.

     

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