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长江经济带现代农业-区域经济-生态环境耦合关系的时空分异

Spatiotemporal differentiation of the coupling relationship among modern agriculture, regional economy and ecological environment in the Yangtze River economic belt

  • 摘要: 本文通过构建现代农业—区域经济—生态环境的AEE三维耦合发展系统,测算了长江经济带2000—2017年的耦合度和耦合协调度,综合运用Moran’s I与Getis-Ord G指数评估了耦合协调度的全局与局部空间自相关水平,并采用灰色GM(1,1)模型对长江经济带2018—2022年AEE系统的耦合协调度做出了预测。研究结果表明:1)长江经济带11省AEE系统的耦合协调度呈上升趋势,区域子系统内部的发展差异较为明显。2)长江经济带AEE系统耦合协调类型以调和协调类和初级耦合协调类为主,处在中度协调向高度协调的过渡阶段;呈现下游高,中上游低的分布格局,中上游与下游的差距在逐步缩小。3)在不同的矩阵模式下,长江经济带AEE系统的协调发展水平间存在一定的空间相关性,形成了以浙江为核心的热点区和云南为核心的冷点区。4)预计未来5年(2018—2022年)长江经济带AEE系统的耦合协调度将会延续良性发展态势,但流域内各省份AEE系统的发展仍然存在不平衡。因此,依据各子系统特征及耦合关系提出针对性建议,以期为今后长江经济带农业现代化进程、区域经济发展和生态环境保护提供理论借鉴。

     

    Abstract: By constructing an AEE three-dimensional coupling development system of modern agriculture, regional economy, and ecological environment, this study analyzed the coupling and coordination degrees of the Yangtze River economic belt from 2000 to 2017 and evaluated the global and local spatial autocorrelation levels of the coordination degrees by calculating the Moran’s Index and Getis-Ord G Index. In addition, this paper also predicted the coupling degree of the AEE system of the Yangtze River economic belt from 2018 to 2022 based on the GM (1,1) model. Results show that: 1) the coupling degrees of the AEE system in 11 provinces of the Yangtze River economic belt are rising, but the development differences among regional subsystems are obvious; 2) the AEE system of the Yangtze River economic belt is dominated by the harmonic coordination class and the primary coordination class, which is in the transition from moderate coordination to high coordination with the distribution pattern of high downstream and low upstream and a narrowing gap between them; 3) under different matrix modes, there is a clear spatial correlation between the coordinated development level of the AEE system in the Yangtze River economic belt, which forms a hot spot in Zhejiang and a cold spot in Yunnan, and 4) it is expected that the coordination of the AEE system in the Yangtze River economic belt in the next five years (2018—2022) will maintain a benign development trend, but the development of the AEE system in the provinces of the river basin is still unbalanced. Therefore, to provide theoretical references for the integrated development of agricultural modernization, regional economic development, and ecological environment protection in the Yangtze River economic belt in the future, this paper suggests to carefully consider the characteristics of each subsystem and the coupling and coordination relationship among them.

     

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