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江苏粮食消费变化及其对我国粮食安全的贡献度分析

Change of grain consumption in Jiangsu Province and its contribution index to China’s grain security

  • 摘要: 粮食安全更在于粮食消费安全。本研究结合江苏2000—2016年粮食生产、消费实际,分析其粮食消费变化特征及影响因素,并通过江苏粮食安全贡献度变化探讨其维护国内粮食供求平衡的可持续性。研究结果表明:2000—2016年江苏粮食消费量稳中有升,其年均增长率仅比同期粮食产量的年均增长率低0.04%;相对于逐渐下降的口粮消费量,饲料用粮、工业用粮逐步成为江苏粮食消费的新增长点;城镇化发展、工业化建设及“价格倒挂”等使快速增长的粮食消费需求成为了江苏粮食安全保障的威胁;从总量上看,经历先减、后增、再减变化的粮食安全贡献度表明处于供求紧平衡状态的江苏难以持续性发挥国内粮食安全保障功能;从品种结构上看,江苏玉米供小于需,有助于国内玉米去库存,稻谷、小麦生产虽可辅助保障国内粮食安全,但有高库存隐忧,仍会有结构性供求失衡问题。据此,为粮食供给提供多方向性选择、鼓励农民种粮以需求为导向、充分利用两个市场及两种资源等成为江苏应对粮食危机的重要方式。

     

    Abstract: Grain consumption is a main component of grain security. Based on the actual production and consumption of grain in Jiangsu from 2000 to 2016, this paper analyzes the changing characteristics and influencing factors of grain consumption, and discusses the sustainability of maintaining the balance of domestic grain supply and demand through the change of contribution index of grain security in Jiangsu. Results show that grain consumption in Jiangsu increased steadily and slowly from 2000 to 2016, and the average annual growth rate of grain consumption was only 0.04 percent, lower than the average annual growth rate of grain output in the same period. Compared with the decreasing grain ration, the feed grain and industrial grain have gradually become the new growth points of grain consumption. The development of urbanization, industrial construction and “inversion of price” leads to a rapid growth of demand for grains, which imposes a threat to grain security. In terms of the total grain quantity, the contribution index of Jiangsu Province displayed a decrease-increase-decrease pattern, indicating that Jiangsu Province cannot continue to play a key role in domestic grain security. From the variety structure perspective, the supply of corn in Jiangsu is lower than the demand, helping reduce the high stock level of corn. Although the production of rice and wheat can help improve domestic grain security, there are still worries about the potential high stock level and the structural imbalance between supply and demand of grains. Therefore, providing multi-directional choices for grain supply, encouraging farmers to grow grains in a demand-oriented way, and making full advantage of two markets and two kinds of resources have become important means for Jiangsu to deal with the grain crisis.

     

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