Abstract:
Analyzing the impact of barley import price on China’s beer trade is of great significance for reducing barley import dependence, enhancing international competitiveness of beer and alleviating beer import pressure. Based on the import and export data of China’s barley and beer from 2001 to 2015 and applying the regional fixed effect Spatial Durbin Model, this paper analyzed the influencing factors of barley imports and beer trade. Results show that barley import has been increasing continuously, and the concentration degree of import market was high. The mean value of barley’s trade competition index was -0.98, and the international competitiveness of China’s barley was weak. China’s beer import was also increasing significantly. However, China’s beer export growth was slow with an unstable export market. The mean value of beer’s trade competition index was -0.42, and the international competitiveness of China’s beer was weak. China’s beer import volume increased rapidly and showed a significant negative spatial correlation in China’s beer import model. Import price of Australian barley had a significant positive impact on China’s beer import and barley price had less influence than that of the GDP of the exporting country and China’s per capita GDP. This research also found that there was a significant positive spatial correlation in China’s beer export model. The import price of Australian barley had a significant negative impact on the export of China’s beer, but its influence on China’s beer export was insignificant. Policy implications of this paper include increasing the yield of domestic barley, improving the linkages among the barley industry chains and strengthening the macro-control of barley trade.