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城镇化对林业产业结构优化影响的实证分析

An empirical analysis of the impact of urbanization on the optimization of forestry industry structure

  • 摘要: 城镇化与农业现代化相互促进是现今我国经济发展的重要议题,林业现代化有赖于林业产业结构升级。基于1998-2014年中国林业统计年鉴的数据,借鉴产业结构层次系数测定林业产业结构值,度量林业产业结构优化程度,运用多元线性回归模型,分析城镇化水平对林业产业结构优化的影响。结果表明,中国的林业产业结构优化程度总体在不断提高,林业产业结构值(S)由1998年的1.32提高到2014年的1.79。1998-2014年中国城镇化率均值为44.37%,最大值为54.77%,城镇化水平对林业产业结构优化具有显著性正向影响;林业资金投入、劳动力投入、林业制度改革对林业产业结构优化有显著性正向影响;由于注重生态建设的宏观环境且林业第三产业发展缓慢,林地面积、森林覆盖率和GDP对林业产业结构优化却有显著负向影响效应。因此,政府和林业生产者要抓住城镇化进程给林业产业结构发展带来的机遇;引领林业产业多元化和高价值化发展;注重林业第三产业发展,优化林业产业投资结构;提高林业从业人员的福利水平,积极完善林业补贴制度,促进林农积极投入林业经营;应落实集体林权制度改革,加强林业制度建设和林业发展。

     

    Abstract: Mutual promotion of urbanization and agricultural modernization is an important issue in China’s economic development and forestry modernization depends on the upgrading of forestry industrial structure. Based on the data of China forestry statistical yearbook from 1998 to 2014, this paper evaluated the forestry industrial structure by the industrial structure coefficient and measured the optimization of the industrial structure using the proportion of the urban population in the total population. In addition, this paper also analyzed the influence of urbanization on forestry industry structure optimization by examining the key influential factors, including the development of the national economy, the area of forest land, the new forest area proportion, education, labor, and capital investment. Results show that 1) the degree of optimization of China’s forestry industrial structure is increasing, and the forestry industry structure value increased from 1.32 in 1998 to 1.79 in 2014, while Chinese urbanization rate was 44.37% from 1998 to 2014, with the maximum value of 54.77% and the level of urbanization has significant positive effect on the optimization of forestry industrial structure; 2) there is a significant positive effect on the optimization of forestry industrial structure in terms of forestry capital input, labor input and forestry system reform; and 3) forest area, forest coverage and GDP have significant negative impacts on the optimization of forestry industrial structure. Based on the results of the research, this paper provides some policy suggestions: to increase the diversification of forestry industry, to develop value-added products, to encourage the development of the third industry, to optimize the investment structure of forestry industry, to improve the welfare level of forestry practitioners, to reform the forestry subsidy system to encourage farmers’ active involvement in forestry management, and to strengthen the construction of forestry system.

     

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