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滇中县域人口城镇化空间结构及影响因素研究

Spatial structure and influencing factors of population urbanization in the central Yunnan Province

  • 摘要: 以滇中地区41个县域为研究单元,利用GIS和空间自相关分析研究人口城镇化的空间结构,以因子分析法探索人口城镇化的主要影响因素,进而采用OLS和GWR探究人口城镇化影响因素特征。研究结果表明:1)滇中县域人口城镇化水平整体偏低且空间差异大,人口城镇化水平随距离衰变明显。2)全局自相关分析表明滇中县域人口城镇化存在显著全局空间自相关关系,局部自相关分析表明人口城镇化水平局部相关性不明显,各县域人口城镇化进程呈孤立态势。3)因子分析法确定滇中县域人口城镇化主要影响因素为经济发展、农业生产和产业结构。OLS模型发现三种因素对人口城镇化均具有正向拉动力,经济发展作用力最大,产业结构其次,农业生产的作用力最小。4)GWR模型研究发现经济发展影响强度从北到南增强,农业生产影响强度从西到东增大,产业结构影响强度从西南向东北方向增大。滇中县域需要提升人口城镇化进程,加快农业结构调整和升级,优化产业结构,以此促进人口城镇化水平的提升。

     

    Abstract: Based on the data of 41 counties in the center of Yunnan Province, and applying the GIS and spatial autocorrelation analysis methods, this paper studied the spatial structure of regional population urbanization, explored the main influencing factors by factor analysis, and analyzed their characteristics by OLS and GWR models. Results show that: 1) Population urbanization levels of the central Yunnan areas were generally low with great spatial differences. The levels of population urbanization decayed obviously with distances; 2) There was significant global spatial autocorrelation of population urbanization in Central Yunnan. While the local correlation of population urbanization levels was not obvious, indicating that the process of urbanization in each county was isolated; 3) Main influencing factors include economic development, agriculture production, and industrial structure, with economic development as the most active one, followed by industrial structure and agricultural production; and 4)the influencing forces increase from the north to the south for economic development, from the West to the East for agriculture production and from the Southwest to the Northeast for industrial structure. This research suggests that it is necessary to promote the process of population urbanization, to speed up the adjustment and upgrading of agricultural structure, and to optimize industrial structure.

     

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