Abstract:
Grain security is the cornerstone of building a moderately prosperous society in all respects and economic structure transformation. Firstly, this paper analyzed the resource and environmental constraints, the uncertainty in international trade environment, the impacts of rapid growth of grain import on China’s grain macro regulations, and the grain demand changes caused by the structural changes of grain consumption in China. Then, this paper evaluated the trend of grain security in the next five years, including the increasing degree of grain dependence, the requirement of improving breed structure, the wide spreading trend of pursuing quality and nutrition value of agricultural products. Results show that, during the 13th five-year plan period, to increase grain security in China, macro and micro security should be consistent, long-term and short-term security should be considered together, and quantity, quality and environment security should be integrated. At the same time, this paper also suggests to improve the comprehensive production capacity of grain security, to enhance the technological contribution rate, to reform the grain circulation system, to establish the interest compensation mechanism in line with the major grain producing areas, to stabilize grain prices, and to reduce food waste.