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1984年以来湖南省耕地压力与粮食安全初步研究

Cropland acreage change and grain production security in Hunan Province since 1984

  • 摘要: 通过收集1984-2013年湖南省人口总量、耕地面积、粮食总产量等数据,基于最小人均耕地面积(Smin)和耕地压力指数(K)模型及分析预测,研究了湖南省耕地面积变化和粮食生产特征及趋势。结果表明:1984年以来,湖南省人口不断增长,耕地面积呈下降趋势,但粮食总产量呈现波动增长态势;Smin和K值在1984-1999年波动下降,2000年之后波动上升,耕地压力逐渐增大;从各区域的耕地压力指数(K)来看,长沙市、张家界市、娄底市、郴州市、怀化市和湘西州耕地压力较大(K>1),粮食供需紧张;株洲市、邵阳市和衡阳市耕地压力处于临界点附近(0.8≤K≤1),粮食生产基本能自给;湘潭市、益阳市、永州市、岳阳市和常德市的耕地压力相对较小(K<0.8),粮食供需相对充足。预测分析表明:若按当前粮食生产模式发展,湖南省耕地压力将进一步增加,在2025年将无法满足国家商品粮的输出。未来应从控制人口增长、落实农业优惠政策、科学制定粮食调控策略、加大农田保护及改造力度等方面保障湖南省粮食安全。

     

    Abstract: This study examined changes of total population, cropland acreage, and total crop yield in Hunan Province from 1984 to 2013. Minimum per capita cropland acreage (Smin), cropland pressure index(K) model and a regression analysis were used to identify the changes. The results showed that the total population in Hunan had increased rapidly during the study period. In contrast, cropland area had decreased. The total crop yield had increased with fluctuations since 1984. Specifically, Smin and K value indicate a decrease with fluctuation from 1984 to 1999. However an increase trend was observed after 2000. Furthermore, there was high cropland pressure in Changsha, Zhangjiajie, Loudi, Chenzhou, Huaihua and Xiangxi. There K values were larger than 1; indicating a potential of short internal supply of grain in these districts. A medium cropland pressure were observed in Shaoyang, Hengyang and Zhuzhou (0.8≤K≤1). The grain production security in these districts was at a safe level. Low cropland pressure in Yiyang, Xiangtan, Yongzhou, Yueyang and Changde (K<0.8); the grain production security in these districts was high. Results from the regression analysis showed that the cropland acreage pressure will continue to rise in Hunan for the next 15 years. Hunan Province will not be able to supply the national commodity grain in 2025 if present crop development pattern remains. In the future, the population growth, the agricultural preferential policies, the effective grain production control strategies and the farmland protection should be taken more consideration to guarantee the grain production security of Hunan Province.

     

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