Abstract:
This study examined changes of total population, cropland acreage, and total crop yield in Hunan Province from 1984 to 2013. Minimum per capita cropland acreage (Smin), cropland pressure index(K) model and a regression analysis were used to identify the changes. The results showed that the total population in Hunan had increased rapidly during the study period. In contrast, cropland area had decreased. The total crop yield had increased with fluctuations since 1984. Specifically, Smin and K value indicate a decrease with fluctuation from 1984 to 1999. However an increase trend was observed after 2000. Furthermore, there was high cropland pressure in Changsha, Zhangjiajie, Loudi, Chenzhou, Huaihua and Xiangxi. There K values were larger than 1; indicating a potential of short internal supply of grain in these districts. A medium cropland pressure were observed in Shaoyang, Hengyang and Zhuzhou (0.8≤K≤1). The grain production security in these districts was at a safe level. Low cropland pressure in Yiyang, Xiangtan, Yongzhou, Yueyang and Changde (K<0.8); the grain production security in these districts was high. Results from the regression analysis showed that the cropland acreage pressure will continue to rise in Hunan for the next 15 years. Hunan Province will not be able to supply the national commodity grain in 2025 if present crop development pattern remains. In the future, the population growth, the agricultural preferential policies, the effective grain production control strategies and the farmland protection should be taken more consideration to guarantee the grain production security of Hunan Province.