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我国食物资源安全状况评价及其对策研究

Security assessment and countermeasures for China’s food resources

  • 摘要: 以食物自给率(FSR)及其均值(M)和变异系数(CV)为评价指标,对1991-2012年中国粮食、猪肉、牛羊肉、禽肉、蛋类、奶类、水产品、水果、蔬菜9大类食物的安全状况及其变化趋势进行了定量分析。研究结果表明:①整体上看,研究期内中国粮食生产已无法完全满足自身的粮食需求,粮食已处于不安全的状态。其主要原因是20世纪90年代以来饲料粮和工业用粮消费量呈现出快速增长的趋势,两者的年均增长速度分别是粮食产量增长速度的3.34倍和6.54倍。②中国各种畜禽产品和水产品的供给量均远远超过需求量,表明猪肉、牛羊肉、禽肉、蛋类、奶类和水产品等6大类食物均处于非常安全的状态,它不但可以满足我国的消费需求,而且有大量剩余可供出口或储备。③水果和蔬菜的安全水平不断提高,并呈现出显著的线性增长趋势,整体上看这2类食物也处于非常安全的状态。

     

    Abstract: Based on the food self-sufficiency rate (FSR), the mean value of FSR (M), and the coefficient of variation of FSR (CV), this research analyzed the security trends of the nine main food categories in China from 1991 to 2012, including grain, pork, beef and lamb, poultry meat, eggs, milk, aquatic products, fruits, and vegetables. The results showed that: 1) in general the grain production of China could not meet its own grain demand in the period of 1991-2012, meaning that grain was in an insecurity status. The main reason is that the portion of feed grain and the industry used grain increased too fast with growth rates of 3.34 times and 6.54 times of the food grain production growth respectively. 2) In the studying period, the supply of pork, beef and lamb, poultry meat, eggs, milk, aquatic products in China were far over their actual demands, meaning that meats and aquatic products were in a very safe status in that they not only meet the demand of domestic market, but also supply for international markets or for reserve. And 3) from 1991 to 2012, the security of fruits and vegetables demonstrated a linear increasing trend, and these two categories were also in a very safe status.

     

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