Abstract: Based on the five aspects of agricultural material inputs which include chemical fertilizer, agricultural film, agricultural pesticide, agricultural diesel oil, rural electricity, agricultural carbon emissions are obtained by using the estimation model of agricultural carbon emissions from 1999to 2011in Jilin Province, and the total agricultural carbon emissions, structure of composition and the intensity of carbon emission, are analyzed. The result indicates that the change of total agricultural carbon emissions in Jilin Province is divided into two stages which include the stage of fluctuating growth and the stage of steady growth, the total agricultural carbon emissions increased continuously from 205.3632×104t to 371.7199×104t between 1999and 2011; the structure of total agricultural carbon emissions kept unchanged that followed by chemical fertilizer, rural electricity, agricultural film, agricultural diesel oil and agricultural pesticide; the intensity of carbon emission increased from 505.2855kg/hm2to 711.7935kg/hm2between 1999and 2011, and its EKC is the three function curve, the turning point will appear in 2012. Based on the STIRPAT model, the study revealed that elasticity coefficients of driving factors such as population, per capita GDP, the value contribution of agricultural, the total power of agricultural machinery, fixed assets investment of farmers are 2.6806,0.0767,0.2160,0.1247and 0.0572, respectively. The time series prediction model shows the total agricultural carbon emissions will increase from 392.4663×104t to 494.1911×104t and the intensity of carbon emission will drop from 709.1317kg/hm2to 561.4089kg/hm2between 2012and 2016in Jilin Province. Therefore, Jilin Province must take effective measures to change the development mode of agricultural production, improve the existing agricultural production structure, strengthen the development of agricultural science and technology, otherwise, the status of agriculture carbon emission reduction will be even more severe in Jilin Province.