Abstract: The continuous growth of China’s population is making its food demand growth more and more rigid; while the rapid development of industrialization and urbanization is resulting in a rapid increase of the non-agricultural construction land and thus decrease of the arable land. For a period of time in the future, China will face an increasingly serious food shortage, and its food security is facing the same challenges. It is in consideration of such a background that this paper first investigates the connotation of food and the composition of China’s food demand, and then applies GARCH model and ARMA model to make a forecast of the future status of China’s food demand and supply. Via the analysis of recent data, this paper did find a food shortage of China, and on the basis of it proposes several policy recommendations consisting of maintaining a reasonable scale of food import and product structure of food import and export, concentrating on and developing national food production and livening the food circulation system.