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汉江上游近50多年来气温变化特征与区域差异

Air Temperature Variation of the Upper Reaches of Hanjiang River in Recent 50Years and Its Regional Differences

  • 摘要: 依据1960-2011年汉江上游29个气象站数据,采用线性回归分析方法、Mann-Kendall突变检验法、空间插值法及Matlab软件小波分析法对汉江上游近52a平均气温的时空变化特征进行了分析。结果显示:(1)1960-2011年间汉江上游年平均气温呈显著上升趋势,年均温的增温速率为0.104℃/10a;年均温距平在1997年之后以正值为主,尤其在2000-2007年间气温上升趋势更明显。(2)汉江上游年均温突变点出现在1997年。(3)汉江上游年均温具有明显的周期性,29a左右的周期振荡最强,为第一主周期。(4)汉江上游多年年均温的空间分布主要表现为南北低中间高,大致呈纬线方向分布。1997年后与1997年前相比,所有县域年均温整体都有上升,但冷暖中心出现了一定的变化。在1997年之后暖中心范围不断扩大,强度不断加深,而冷中心范围在不断减小,强度在不断减弱。(5)温度变率方面,年均温较高的中间河谷盆地增温较少或略有降温,而年均温较低的河谷两侧低山区增温明显,增温幅度较大。且1997年前后,增温中心明显由气温较高的汉江上游东部向气温较低的西部移动。

     

    Abstract: Based on the meterological data of the 29stations in the upper reaches of Hanjiang River during 1960-2011, linear regressive analysis, Mann-Kendall mutation test, spatial interpolation and analysis of wavelets were applied to analyze the spatio-temporal characteristics of annual mean temperature. Results showed that:(1) the annual mean temperature showed an increasing trend, rising at the rates of 0.104℃/10a. Anomaly of air temperature had mainly positive value after 1997, especially annual mean temperature had an obvious increasing trend in the 2000-2007. (2) The mutation year of annual mean temperature was 1997in the upper reaches of Hanjiang River. (3)There was obvious cycle change of annual mean temperature in the areas. 29a is the first main cycle, which is the most powerful oscillation. (4)The spatial distributions of annual mean temperature in the areas display that the lower temperature is in the southern and northern area, but the higher temperature in the middle area, which are distributed along the latitudinal. Compared with 1997years ago, the annual mean temperature of the county showed an increasing trend, but cool and warm center have certain changed after 1997. Especially the range and strength of warm center had enlarged and deepened, the range and strength of cold center had narrowed and weakened after 1997. (5) According to the change of temperature trend rate, the temperature increased less or decreased slightly in the middle valley basin area with higher annual mean temperature, but increased obviously in north and south valley area with lower temperature. And warm center have moved from east higher temperature area to west lower temperature area in the Upper reaches of Hanjiang around 1997.

     

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