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我国原料奶拟需求量预测及供需协调分析

Virtual Demand Forecasting and Demand and Supply Coordination Degree Analysis of Raw Milk in China

  • 摘要: 本文首先引入我国原料奶拟需求量的概念;然后建立了我国原料奶拟需求量的预测模型,预测得到2011-2013年的我国原料奶拟需求量分别为4746.6万t、4977.6万t和5212万t;最后基于灰色关联度对近年我国原料奶的供需协调情况进行了测算分析。结果显示:2001-2010年我国原料奶的灰色关联度为0.64,即过去10年间我国原料奶的供需矛盾突出。提出了我国各地区应确定合理的奶牛养殖规模,提高原料奶自给率;培育和开拓奶类消费市场,加强和完善乳制品质量监测与安全管理;继续推进奶牛群体遗传改良计划等政策建议。

     

    Abstract: In this paper, the concept of virtual demand of raw milk was introduced first, then the forecasting model of China's virtual demand of raw milk was established. Applied the model, we got that the virtual demand of raw milk would reach 47.466 million tons, 49.776 million tons and 52.12 million tons respectively in year 2011-2013. Applied grey relational analysis, it is estimated that the demand and supply degree of raw milk in China from 2011 to 2013 is 0.64, which means there will be serious imbalance between supply and demand of raw milk in China

     

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