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吉林省玉米生产波动的影响因素与稳产对策

A Study on Factors of Maize Yield Fluctuation and Policy Suggestion of Stabilizing Production in Jilin Province

  • 摘要: 吉林省作为我国重要的玉米主产区,探讨其玉米生产波动问题有着重要的现实意义。本文对吉林省1990-2010年玉米生产的波动情况进行了分析,结果表明:吉林省玉米生产是在不稳定的波动中增长的,其波动周期频度较高,长度不规则,波动幅度剧烈。并从自然因素、农业政策、玉米市场、科学技术等角度,剖析了吉林省玉米生产波动的影响因素;进而从加强玉米生产基础设施建设、建立健全灾害防控体系和玉米市场体系等方面,提出了防御和平抑吉林省玉米生产超常波动的对策。

     

    Abstract: Jilin Province is China’s major maize producing areas. It is very important to discuss the problem of maize fluctuation. Fluctuation of maize production from 1990 to 2010 was analyzed in this paper. The results showed that the maize yield in Jilin Province increased in unstable fluctuation, with high-frequency fluctuation cycle and irregular length.The amplitude of fluctuation is severe. From four aspects, namely natural disaster, agricultural policy, maize market,science and technology, the factors of fluctuation of maize yield in Jilin Province was analyzed. Measures of preventing and arresting super-long fluctuation of maize yield were put forward. Firstly, strengthening construction on basic installation of maize yield; secondly, establishing disaster preventive system; thirdly, perfecting maize marketable system.

     

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