Abstract:
Central China is the major grain producing areas of China, and its grain production accounts 30.33 percents of the whole country. Using the Grain production data of Central China from 1978 to 2008, the fluctuation index was constructed to analyze its fluctuation characteristics. The results showed: a significant increasing tendency existed with the fluctuation of the grain production in Central China from 1978 to 2008, and the fluctuation has the characteristics of change frequently, short periodic and great amplitude of variation. In view of the grain production fluctuation characteristics in Central China, we systematically analyzed the economic and social influential factors which had great influence on grain production, such as the policy guidance and the price of grain, the total amounts of arable land and grain acreage, the material and technological input of agriculture, and the grain distribution system. Combining the fact of constructing grain production base in Central China, some policies and suggestions were put forwards to stabilize its grain production. such as to intensify the arable land protection and stabilize grain cultivation area, to increase fiscal input in agriculture and infrastructure construction in grain production, to construct early warning mechanism grain production and stabilize the grain price, to propel agricultural technological progress etc.