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要素配置优化视角下农村产业融合对农业经济韧性的影响研究

Impact of rural industrial integration on agricultural economic resilience from the perspective of factor allocation optimization

  • 摘要: 农村产业融合是推动农业现代化转型的重要路径,对提升农业综合生产能力和增强农业经济韧性具有重要作用。基于2010—2024年中国粮食主产区987个县级行政区的面板数据,采用熵权法和反事实测度法分别测算农村产业融合水平与农业经济韧性,并系统考察农村产业融合对农业经济韧性的影响及其作用机制。研究发现:1)农村产业融合能够显著增强农业经济韧性,该结论在内生性处理和一系列稳健性检验后仍然成立;2)从影响路径看,农村产业融合能够通过促进农业规模化经营和改善劳动力要素配置提升农业经济韧性,但资本要素配置效率这一传导路径尚未得到经验证据支持;3)从门槛效应看,随着消费需求波动跨越双门槛,农村产业融合对农业经济韧性的促进效应呈现先增强后减弱的变化特征,而当农业生产风险和财政压力分别跨越相应门槛后,其促进效应均明显减弱;4)从区域异质性看,农村产业融合对农业经济韧性的促进作用在年均降水量较多、人均GDP较高和地形起伏度较低的地区相对更强。基于此,应因地制宜推进农村产业融合,完善土地流转和农业社会化服务体系,促进农业适度规模经营,优化劳动力要素配置,并着力改善农村金融服务和资本配置条件,同时加强市场、生产和财政风险管理,以更好发挥农村产业融合对农业经济韧性的提升作用。

     

    Abstract: Rural industrial integration is an important pathway for promoting the modernization of agriculture, with significant implications for improving overall agricultural production capacity and strengthening agricultural economic resilience. Using panel data from 987 county-level administrative units in China’s major grain-producing areas from 2010 to 2024, this study employs the entropy weight method and the counterfactual measurement method to measure the levels of rural industrial integration and agricultural economic resilience, respectively, and systematically examines the impact of rural industrial integration on agricultural economic resilience and its underlying mechanisms. The results show that: 1) rural industrial integration significantly enhances agricultural economic resilience, and this finding remains robust after addressing endogeneity and conducting a series of robustness checks; 2) in terms of the underlying mechanisms, rural industrial integration enhances agricultural economic resilience by promoting appropriately scaled agricultural operations and improving labor factor allocation, whereas the transmission pathway through capital allocation efficiency is not supported by the empirical evidence; 3) in terms of threshold effects, as consumption demand volatility crosses the double thresholds, the positive effect of rural industrial integration on agricultural economic resilience first strengthens and then weakens, while the positive effect significantly weakens when agricultural production risk and fiscal pressure cross their respective thresholds; and 4) in terms of regional heterogeneity, the positive effect of rural industrial integration on agricultural economic resilience is relatively stronger in areas with higher average annual precipitation, higher per capita GDP, and lower terrain relief. Accordingly, rural industrial integration should be promoted according to local conditions. Land transfer systems and agricultural socialized service systems should be improved to promote appropriately scaled agricultural operations, labor factor allocation should be optimized, and rural financial services and conditions for capital allocation should be improved. Meanwhile, market, production, and fiscal risk management should be strengthened to better leverage the role of rural industrial integration in enhancing agricultural economic resilience.

     

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